Thought to operate over a decade or more, Atlantic current cycles may influence the odds of wet summers for several more years but do not rule out the possibility of decent summers.
Exeter scientists discuss seasonal variability at Met Office workshop
Researchers from the University of Exeter co-organised a workshop at the Met Office in Exeter to discuss the possible reasons for Britain and Europe's unusual seasonal weather over the past few years.
A run of unusual seasons in the UK and Northern Europe – spring 2013 was the coldest for over 50 years, 2012 was the wettest year this century and December 2010 was the coldest on record - prompted weather and climate researchers to meet and discuss possible causes and areas of future research.
Five out of the last six UK summers have seen above average rainfall (2010 is the exception, with average rainfall) and the workshop heard new evidence suggesting that long-term Atlantic currents may be playing an important role. These are understood to operate on cycles of a decade or more, which suggests that we may see their influence on our summers for a few more years to come. While these influence the odds of a wet summer, it doesn't rule out the possibility of decent summers over the next few years.
Emerging research has suggested that there is a link between declining Arctic sea ice and the position of the jet stream. The detail of how this process may work and its possible impact on the European winters remains unclear.
Dr James Screen, from Mathematics at the University of Exeter, said: "There has been a lot of talk about declining Arctic sea ice playing a role in our weather patterns, but really that's just one aspect of changes in the Arctic climate – which has seen rapid warming compared to other parts of the world. Those changes mean there is less of a difference in temperature between the Arctic and tropics, which could impact the position of the jet stream."
Workshops of this kind are regularly held on a range of issues across weather and climate science.
Further information about the workshop can be found on the Met Office blog.
Date: 19 June 2013
