Overview

Joint Met Office Chair in Climate Change

Field Chief Editor Frontiers in Climate

Coordinating Lead Author IPCC AR5 and IPCC SROCC

CV as of Spring 2022

Research Interests:

• Physical aspects of climate variability and change
• Quantifying uncertainty in climate projections
• Dynamics of the El Nino Southern Oscillation
• Changing hydrological cycle
• Dynamics of monsoons
• Decadal climate variablity

Follow me on Twitter @mat_collins

I am offering to supervise self-funded PhD students in the areas of

• Patterns of tropical sea surface temperatures under climate change
• Physical processes controlling the El Nino Southern Oscillation and its teleconnections
• Global monsoon systems and their response to climate change
• Other aspects of climate dynamics - please get in touch

Further information on PhD funding can be found here

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Publications

_{Copyright Notice: Any articles made available for download are for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and the copyright holder.}

| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 |

2024

• Dittus AJ, Collins M, Sutton R, Hawkins E. (2024) Reversal of Projected European Summer Precipitation Decline in a Stabilizing Climate, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 51, no. 6, DOI:10.1029/2023gl107448. [PDF]
• He C, Chen X, Collins M, Song F, Hu Y, Jiang X, Liu Y, Ding Y, Zhou W. (2024) Rising geopotential height under global warming, Climate Dynamics, DOI:10.1007/s00382-024-07175-5. [PDF]
• Zheng Y, Tam CY, Xu K, Collins M. (2024) Origins of Underestimated Indian Ocean Dipole Skewness in CMIP5/6 Models, Journal of Climate, volume 37, no. 3, pages 837-853, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0412.1.
• Liang J, Collins M, Pan Z, Wang J, Pan X, Huang B, Long B, He Q, Dong W. (2024) Climate change diverts atmospheric rivers toward densely populated Asia, DOI:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3815793/v1. [PDF]
• Hari V, Rakovec O, Zhang W, Koppa A, Collins M, Kumar R. (2024) On the role of the Atlantic Meridional Mode in eastern European temperature variability, Atmospheric Research, volume 297, pages 107082-107082, article no. 107082, DOI:10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107082. [PDF]

2023

• Dittus AJ, Collins M, Sutton R, Hawkins E. (2023) Reversal of Projected European Summer Precipitation Decline in a Stabilising Climate, DOI:10.22541/essoar.170365357.71476235/v1. [PDF]
• Qiu W, Collins M, Scaife AA. (2023) Winter Subtropical Highs, the Hadley Circulation and Baroclinic Instability, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, volume 128, no. 22, DOI:10.1029/2023jd039604. [PDF]
• Mutton H. (2023) Understanding Changes in West African Monsoon Precipitation Under Increased Levels of CO2.
• Mutton H, Chadwick R, Collins M, Lambert FH, Taylor CM, Geen R, Todd A. (2023) The impact of a uniform ocean warming on the West African monsoon, Climate Dynamics, volume 62, no. 1, pages 103-122, DOI:10.1007/s00382-023-06898-1. [PDF]
• Cai W, Ng B, Geng T, Jia F, Wu L, Wang G, Liu Y, Gan B, Yang K, Santoso A. (2023) Anthropogenic impacts on twentieth-century ENSO variability changes, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, volume 4, no. 6, pages 407-418, DOI:10.1038/s43017-023-00427-8.
• Thompson V, Mitchell D, Hegerl GC, Collins M, Leach NJ, Slingo JM. (2023) The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves, Nature Communications, volume 14, no. 1, article no. 2152, DOI:10.1038/s41467-023-37554-1. [PDF]
• Zhong S, Ying J, Collins M. (2023) Sources of Uncertainty in the Time of Emergence of Tropical Pacific Climate Change Signal: Role of Internal Variability, Journal of Climate, volume 36, no. 8, pages 2535-2549, DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-22-0554.1.
• Abatan AA, Collins M, Babel MS, Khadka D, De Silva YK. (2023) Sub-seasonal to seasonal drivers of dry extreme rainfall events over Northeast Thailand, Frontiers in Climate, volume 4, DOI:10.3389/fclim.2022.1031226.

2022

• . (2022) Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risks, The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, Cambridge University Press, 589-656, DOI:10.1017/9781009157964.008. [PDF]
• West A, Blockley E, Collins M. (2022) Understanding model spread in sea ice volume by attribution of model differences in seasonal ice growth and melt, The Cryosphere, volume 16, no. 10, pages 4013-4032, DOI:10.5194/tc-16-4013-2022.
• Derksen C, Adler C, Collins M, Sebesvari Z. (2022) Editorial: Knowledge gaps from the IPCC special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate and recent advances (volumes I and II), Frontiers in Climate, volume 4, DOI:10.3389/fclim.2022.983144.
• Chan PW, Catto JL, Collins M. (2022) Heatwave–blocking relation change likely dominates over decrease in blocking frequency under global warming, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, volume 5, no. 1, article no. 68, DOI:10.1038/s41612-022-00290-2. [PDF]
• Freychet N, Hegerl GC, Lord NS, Lo YTE, Mitchell D, Collins M. (2022) Robust increase in population exposure to heat stress with increasing global warming, Environmental Research Letters, volume 17, no. 6, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ac71b9.
• Thompson V, Kennedy-Asser AT, Vosper E, Lo YTE, Huntingford C, Andrews O, Collins M, Hegerl GC, Mitchell D. (2022) The 2021 western North America heat wave among the most extreme events ever recorded globally, Sci Adv, volume 8, no. 18, DOI:10.1126/sciadv.abm6860. [PDF]
• Mitchell DM, Stone EJ, Andrews OD, Bamber JL, Bingham RJ, Browse J, Henry M, MacLeod DM, Morten JM, Sauter CA. (2022) The Bristol CMIP6 Data Hackathon, Weather, volume 77, no. 6, pages 218-221, DOI:10.1002/wea.4161. [PDF]
• Ying J, Collins M, Cai W, Timmermann A, Huang P, Chen D, Stein K. (2022) Emergence of climate change in the tropical Pacific, Nature Climate Change, volume 12, no. 4, pages 356-364, DOI:10.1038/s41558-022-01301-z. [PDF]
• Ma J, Feng J, Kang I-S, Collins M, Watanabe M, Li J, Zhang Y. (2022) Percentage change patterns in cloud fraction effectively constrain global cloud feedback, DOI:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1377524/v1. [PDF]
• Mutton H, Chadwick R, Collins M, Lambert FH, Geen R, Todd A, Taylor CM. (2022) The Impact of the Direct Radiative Effect of Increased CO2 on the West African Monsoon, Journal of Climate, volume 35, no. 8, pages 2441-2458, DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-21-0340.1.
• Liu Q. (2022) Understanding climate feedbacks with idealized models. [PDF]
• Liu Q. (2022) Understanding climate feedbacks with idealized models.
• Liu Q. (2022) Understanding climate feedbacks with idealized models.
• Khadka D, Babel MS, Abatan AA, Collins M. (2022) An evaluation of CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models in simulating summer rainfall in the Southeast Asian monsoon domain, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, volume 42, no. 2, pages 1181-1202, DOI:10.1002/joc.7296. [PDF]

2021

• Hill EA, Rosier SHR, Gudmundsson GH, Collins M. (2021) Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner-Ronne basin, Antarctica, volume 2021, pages 1-43, DOI:10.5194/tc-2021-120.
• West A, Blockley E, Collins M. (2021) Understanding model spread in sea ice volume by attribution of model differences in seasonal ice growth and melt, volume 2021, pages 1-27, DOI:10.5194/tc-2021-351.
• Collins M, Ashok K, Barreiro M, Roxy MK, Kang SM, Frölicher TL, Wang G, Tedeschi RG. (2021) Editorial: New Techniques for Improving Climate Models, Predictions and Projections, Frontiers in Climate, volume 3, DOI:10.3389/fclim.2021.811205.
• Khadka D, Babel MS, Shrestha S, Virdis SGP, Collins M. (2021) Multivariate and multi-temporal analysis of meteorological drought in the northeast of Thailand, Weather and Climate Extremes, volume 34, pages 100399-100399, article no. 100399, DOI:10.1016/j.wace.2021.100399. [PDF]
• West A. (2021) New methods for evaluating sea ice in climate models based on energy budgets.
• Feba F, Ashok K, Collins M, Shetye SR. (2021) Emerging Skill in Multi-Year Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole, Frontiers in Climate, volume 3, DOI:10.3389/fclim.2021.736759.
• Abatan AA, Collins M, Babel MS, Khadka D, De Silva YK. (2021) Assessment of the Ability of CMIP6 GCMS to Simulate the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation Over Southeast Asia, Frontiers in Climate, volume 3, DOI:10.3389/fclim.2021.716129.
• Hill EA, Rosier SHR, Gudmundsson GH, Collins M. (2021) Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner-Ronne basin, Antarctica, Cryosphere, volume 15, no. 10, pages 4675-4702, DOI:10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021.
• Power S, Lengaigne M, Capotondi A, Khodri M, Vialard J, Jebri B, Guilyardi E, McGregor S, Kug J-S, Newman M. (2021) Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects, Science, volume 374, no. 6563, DOI:10.1126/science.aay9165. [PDF]
• Ying J, Collins M, Cai W, Timmermann A, Huang P, Chen D, Stein K. (2021) Emergence of Climate Change in the Tropical Pacific, DOI:10.21203/rs.3.rs-842462/v1. [PDF]
• Khadka D, Babel MS, Collins M, Shrestha S, Virdis SGP, Chen AS. (2021) Projected changes in the near‐future mean climate and extreme climate events in northeast Thailand, International Journal of Climatology, volume 42, no. 4, pages 2470-2492, DOI:10.1002/joc.7377. [PDF]
• Cai W, Santoso A, Collins M, Dewitte B, Karamperidou C, Kug J-S, Lengaigne M, McPhaden MJ, Stuecker MF, Taschetto AS. (2021) Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, volume 2, no. 9, pages 628-644, DOI:10.1038/s43017-021-00199-z. [PDF]
• Beverley JD, Collins M, Lambert FH, Chadwick R. (2021) Future Changes to El Niño Teleconnections over the North Pacific and North America, Journal of Climate, pages 1-43, DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0877.1. [PDF]
• Ayres H. (2021) The Climate Response to Antarctic Sea Ice Loss.
• Liu Q, Collins M, Maher P, Thomson SI, Vallis GK. (2021) SimCloud version 1.0: a simple diagnostic cloud scheme for idealized climate models, Geoscientific Model Development, volume 14, no. 5, pages 2801-2826, DOI:10.5194/gmd-14-2801-2021. [PDF]
• Webb M. (2021) Cloud Feedbacks in the Climate System.
• Freychet N, Hegerl G, Mitchell D, Collins M. (2021) Future changes in the frequency of temperature extremes may be underestimated in tropical and subtropical regions, Communications Earth & Environment, volume 2, no. 1, article no. 28, DOI:10.1038/s43247-021-00094-x. [PDF]
• Jimenez JC, Marengo JA, Alves LM, Sulca JC, Takahashi K, Ferrett S, Collins M. (2021) The role of ENSO flavours and TNA on recent droughts over Amazon forests and the Northeast Brazil region, International Journal of Climatology, volume 41, no. 7, pages 3761-3780, DOI:10.1002/joc.6453.

2020

• Collins M, Barreiro M, Frölicher T, Kang SM, Ashok K, Roxy MK, Singh D, Tedeschi RG, Wang G, Wilcox L. (2020) Frontiers in Climate Predictions and Projections, Frontiers in Climate, volume 2, DOI:10.3389/fclim.2020.571245.
• Liu Q, Collins M, Maher P, Thomson SI, Vallis GK. (2020) SimCloud version 1.0: a simple diagnostic cloud scheme for idealized climate models, DOI:10.5194/gmd-2020-402. [PDF]
• Hari V, Villarini G, Karmakar S, Wilcox LJ, Collins M. (2020) Northward Propagation of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and Strengthening of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 47, no. 23, DOI:10.1029/2020gl089823. [PDF]
• Cai W, Santoso A, Wang G, Wu L, Collins M, Lengaigne M, Power S, Timmermann A. (2020) ENSO Response to Greenhouse Forcing, El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate, American Geophysical Union / Wiley, 289-307, DOI:10.1002/9781119548164.ch13.
• Kajtar JB, Santoso A, Collins M, Taschetto AS, England MH, Frankcombe LM. (2020) Intermodel CMIP5 relationships in the baseline Southern Ocean climate system and with future projections, DOI:10.1002/essoar.10504633.1. [PDF]
• West A, Collins M, Blockley E. (2020) Using Arctic ice mass balance buoys for evaluation of modelled ice energy fluxes, Geoscientific Model Development, volume 13, no. 10, pages 4845-4868, DOI:10.5194/gmd-13-4845-2020.
• Eunice Lo YT, Mitchell DM, Bohnenstengel SI, Collins M, Hawkins E, Hegerl GC, Joshi M, Stott PA. (2020) U.K. climate projections: Summer daytime and nighttime urban heat island changes in England's major cities, Journal of Climate, volume 33, no. 20, pages 9015-9030, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0961.1.
• Betts R, Collins M. (2020) ENSO and the Carbon Cycle, American Geophysical Union, DOI:10.1002/9781119548164.ch20.
• Osborne JM, Collins M, Screen JA, Thomson SI, Dunstone N. (2020) The North Atlantic as a driver of summer atmospheric circulation, Journal of Climate, volume 33, no. 17, pages 7335-7351, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0423.1.
• Ferrett S, Collins M, Ren HL, Wu B, Zhou T. (2020) The role of tropical mean-state biases in modeled winter northern hemisphere el niño teleconnections, Journal of Climate, volume 33, no. 11, pages 4751-4768, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0668.1.
• Saint-Lu M, Chadwick R, Lambert FH, Collins M, Boutle I, Whitall M, Daleu C. (2020) Influences of Local and Remote Conditions on Tropical Precipitation and Its Response to Climate Change, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 33, no. 10, pages 4045-4063, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0450.1. [PDF]
• Yan Z, Wu B, Li T, Collins M, Clark R, Zhou T, Murphy J, Tan G. (2020) Eastward shift and extension of ENSO-induced tropical precipitation anomalies under global warming, Science Advances, volume 6, no. 2, DOI:10.1126/sciadv.aax4177. [PDF]

2019

• West A, Collins M, Blockley E. (2019) Using Arctic ice mass balance buoys for evaluation of modelled ice energy fluxes, volume 2019, pages 1-30, DOI:10.5194/gmd-2019-113.
• Freychet N, Hegerl G, Mitchell D, Collins M. (2019) Future heat extremes likely to have been underestimated, DOI:10.31223/osf.io/jnvye.
• Saint‐Lu M, Chadwick R, Lambert FH, Collins M. (2019) Surface Warming and Atmospheric Circulation Dominate Rainfall Changes Over Tropical Rainforests Under Global Warming, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 46, no. 22, pages 13410-13419, DOI:10.1029/2019gl085295. [PDF]
• West A, Collins M, Blockley E, Ridley J, Bodas-Salcedo A. (2019) Induced surface fluxes: A new framework for attributing Arctic sea ice volume balance biases to specific model errors, Cryosphere, volume 13, no. 7, pages 2001-2022, DOI:10.5194/tc-13-2001-2019.
• Stammer D, Bracco A, AchutaRao K, Beal L, Bindoff N, Braconnot P, Cai W, Chen D, Collins M, Danabasoglu G. (2019) Ocean climate observing requirements in support of Climate Research and Climate Information, Frontiers in Marine Science, volume 6, no. JUL, DOI:10.3389/fmars.2019.00444.
• Todd A. (2019) Understanding future changes in tropical rainfall and its variability.
• Osborne JM, Collins M, Screen JA, Thomson SI, Dunstone N. (2019) The North Atlantic as a driver of summer atmospheric circulation (dataset).
• Roy I, Tedeschi RG, Collins M. (2019) ENSO teleconnections to the Indian summer monsoon under changing climate, International Journal of Climatology, volume 39, no. 6, pages 3031-3042, DOI:10.1002/joc.5999.
• Kajtar J, Collins M, Frankcome L, England M, Osborn T, Juniper M. (2019) Global mean surface temperature response to large‐scale patterns of variability in observations and CMIP5, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2018GL081462.
• Ferrett S, Collins M. (2019) ENSO feedbacks and their relationships with the mean state in a flux adjusted ensemble, Climate Dynamics, volume 52, no. 12, pages 7189-7208, DOI:10.1007/s00382-016-3270-9.

2018

• West A, Collins M, Blockley E, Ridley J, Bodas-Salcedo A. (2018) Attribution of sea ice model biases to specific model errors enabled by new induced surface flux framework, pages 1-27, DOI:10.5194/tc-2018-60.
• McGregor S, Stuecker MF, Kajtar JB, England MH, Collins M. (2018) Model tropical Atlantic biases underpin diminished Pacific decadal variability, Nature Climate Change, volume 8, no. 6, pages 493-498, DOI:10.1038/s41558-018-0163-4.
• Yeh SW, Cai W, Min SK, McPhaden MJ, Dommenget D, Dewitte B, Collins M, Ashok K, An SI, Yim BY. (2018) ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections and Their Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing, Reviews of Geophysics, volume 56, no. 1, pages 185-206, DOI:10.1002/2017RG000568.
• Collins M, Minobe S, Barreiro M, Bordoni S, Kaspi Y, Kuwano-Yoshida A, Keenlyside N, Manzini E, O'Reilly CH, Sutton R. (2018) Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics, Nature Climate Change, volume 8, no. 2, pages 101-108, DOI:10.1038/s41558-017-0059-8.

2017

• Ferrett SJ, Collins M, Ren H-L. (2017) Diagnosing relationships between mean state biases and El Niño shortwave feedback in CMIP5 models, Journal of Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0331.1.
• Collins M, Todd A, Lambert H, Chadwick R. (2017) Diagnosing ENSO and global warming tropical precipitation shifts using 2 surface relative humidity and temperature, Journal of Climate.
• Miller AJ, Collins M, Gualdi S, Jensen TG, Misra V, Pezzi LP, Pierce DW, Putrasahan D, Seo H, Tseng YH. (2017) Coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling and predictions, Journal of Marine Research, volume 75, no. 3, pages 361-402, DOI:10.1357/002224017821836770.
• Williamson MS, collins M, drijfhout S, kahana R, mecking J, lenton TM. (2017) Effect of AMOC collapse on ENSO in a high resolution general circulation model, Climate Dynamics, DOI:10.1007/s00382-017-3756-0.
• Collins M. (2017) Still weighting to break the model democracy, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 44, no. 7, pages 3328-3329, DOI:10.1002/2017GL073370.
• Tedeschi RG, Collins M. (2017) The influence of ENSO on South American precipitation: simulation and projection in CMIP5 models, International Journal of Climatology, volume 37, no. 8, pages 3319-3339, DOI:10.1002/joc.4919.
• Osborne JM, Screen JA, Collins M. (2017) Ocean-atmosphere state dependence of the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss, Journal of Climate, volume 30, pages 1537-1552, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0531.1.
• Roy I, Tedeschi RG, Collins M. (2017) ENSO teleconnections to the Indian summer monsoon in observations and models, International Journal of Climatology, volume 37, no. 4, pages 1794-1813, DOI:10.1002/joc.4811.
• Roy I, Tedeschi, RG, Collins M. (2017) ENSO teleconnections to the Indian summer monsoon in observations and models, International Journal of Climatology, volume 37,4, pages 1794-1813, DOI:10.1002/joc.4811.

2016

• Pistoia J, Pinardi N, Oddo P, Collins M, Korres G, Drillet Y. (2016) Development of Super-Ensemble techniques for ocean analyses: the Mediterranean Sea case, DOI:10.5194/nhess-2016-46.
• Pistoia J, Pinardi N, Oddo P, Collins M, Korres G, Drillet Y. (2016) Development of super-ensemble techniques for ocean analyses: The Mediterranean Sea case, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, volume 16, no. 8, pages 1807-1819, DOI:10.5194/nhess-16-1807-2016.
• Day JJ, Tietsche S, Collins M, Goessling HF, Guemas V, Guillory A, Hurlin WJ, Ishii M, Keeley SPE, Matei D. (2016) The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1, Geoscientific Model Development, volume 9, no. 6, pages 2255-2270, DOI:10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016.
• Guilyardi E, Wittenberg A, Balmaseda M, Cai W, Collins M, McPhaden MJ, Watanabe M, Yeh SW. (2016) Fourth clivar workshop on the evaluation of enso processes in climate models: Enso in a changing climate, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, volume 97, no. 5, pages 767-786, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00287.1.
• Hawcroft MK, Collins M, Haywood J, Jones A, Jones AC, Stephens G. (2016) Southern Ocean albedo, inter-hemispheric energy transports and the double ITCZ: global impacts of biases in a coupled model, Climate Dynamics: observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system, DOI:10.1007/s00382-016-3205-5.
• Collins M. (2016) Links between tropical Pacific seasonal, interannual and orbital variability during the Holocene, Nature Geoscience, volume 9, pages 168-173, DOI:10.1038/ngeo2608. [PDF]

2015

• Watts N, Neil Adger W, Agnolucci P, Blackstock J, Byass P, Cai W, Chaytor S, Colbourn T, Collins M, Cooper A. (2015) Health and climate change - Political strategies for the protection of public health, Umweltmedizin in Forschung und Praxis, volume 20, no. 4, pages 167-169.
• Day JJ, Tietsche S, Collins M, Goessling HF, Guemas V, Guillory A, Hurlin WJ, Ishii M, Keeley SPE, Matei D. (2015) The Arctic predictability and prediction on seasonal-to-interannual timescales (APPOSITE) data set, Geoscientific Model Development, volume 8, no. 10, pages 8809-8833, DOI:10.5194/gmdd-8-8809-2015.
• Santoso A, Cai W, Collins M, McPhaden M, Jin FF, Guilyardi E, Vecchi G, Dommenget D, Wang G. (2015) Enso extremes and diversity : Dynamics, teleconnections, and impacts, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, volume 96, no. 11, pages 1969-1972, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00141.1.
• Xie SP, Deser C, Vecchi GA, Collins M, Delworth TL, Hall A, Hawkins E, Johnson NC, Cassou C, Giannini A. (2015) Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change, Nature Climate Change, volume 5, no. 10, pages 921-930, DOI:10.1038/nclimate2689.
• Cai W, Santoso A, Wang G, Yeh SW, An SI, Cobb KM, Collins M, Guilyardi E, Jin FF, Kug JS. (2015) ENSO and greenhouse warming, Nature Climate Change, volume 5, no. 9, pages 849-859, DOI:10.1038/nclimate2743.
• Ferraro AJ, Lambert FH, Collins M, Miles GM. (2015) Physical Mechanisms of Tropical Climate Feedbacks Investigated Using Temperature and Moisture Trends, Journal of Climate, volume 28, no. 22, pages 8968-8987, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0253.1.
• Prakash S, Mitra AK, Momin IM, Rajagopal EN, Basu S, Collins M, Turner AG, Achuta Rao K, Ashok K. (2015) Seasonal intercomparison of observational rainfall datasets over India during the southwest monsoon season, International Journal of Climatology, volume 35, no. 9, pages 2326-2338, DOI:10.1002/joc.4129.
• Ferraro AJ, Collins M, Lambert FH. (2015) A hiatus in the stratosphere?, Nature Climate Change, volume 5, pages 497-498, DOI:10.1038/nclimate2624.
• Roberts CD, Palmer MD, McNeall D, Collins M. (2015) Quantifying the likelihood of a continued hiatus in global warming, Nature Climate Change, volume 5, no. 4, pages 337-342, DOI:10.1038/nclimate2531.
• Russon T, Tudhope AW, Collins M, Hegerl GC. (2015) Inferring changes in ENSO amplitude from the variance of proxy records, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 42, no. 4, pages 1197-1204, DOI:10.1002/2014GL062331.
• Russon T, Tudhope AW, Collins M, Hegerl GC. (2015) Inferring changes in ENSO amplitude from the variance of proxy records, Geophysical Research Letters.
• Cai W, Wang G, Santoso A, Mcphaden MJ, Wu L, Jin FF, Timmermann A, Collins M, Vecchi G, Lengaigne M. (2015) Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming, Nature Climate Change, volume 5, no. 2, pages 132-137, DOI:10.1038/nclimate2492.
• Roy I, Collins, M. (2015) On Identifying the role of Sun and the El Nino Southern Oscillation on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall, Atmospheric Science Letters, DOI:10.1002/asl2.547.

2014

• Holbrook NJ, Li J, Collins M, Di Lorenzo E, Jin F-F, Knutson T, Latif M, Li C, Power SB, Huang R. (2014) Decadal Climate Variability and Cross-Scale Interactions: ICCL 2013 Expert Assessment Workshop, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, volume 95, no. 8, pages es155-es158, DOI:10.1175/bams-d-13-00201.1.
• Frame DJ, Booth B, Kettleborough JA, Stainforth DA, Gregory JM, Collins M, Allen MR. (2014) Correction to: “Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions”, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 41, no. 9, pages 3257-3258, DOI:10.1002/2014gl059853. [PDF]
• Sanchez C, Williams KD, Shutts G, Collins M. (2014) Impact of a Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter scheme across time-scales and resolutions, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 140, no. 685, pages 2625-2637, DOI:10.1002/qj.2328.
• Borlace S, Santoso A, Cai W, Collins M. (2014) Extreme swings of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and the different types of El Niño events, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 41, no. 13, pages 4695-4703, DOI:10.1002/2014GL060551.
• Russon T, Tudhope AW, Hegerl GC, Schurer A, Collins M. (2014) Assessing the significance of changes in ENSO amplitude using variance metrics, Journal of Climate, volume 27, no. 13, pages 4911-4922, DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-13-00077.1.
• Sanchez C, Williams KD, Shutts G, Collins M. (2014) Impact of a stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme across time-scales and resolutions, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.
• Cai W, Borlace S, Lengaigne M, Van Rensch P, Collins M, Vecchi G, Timmermann A, Santoso A, Mcphaden MJ, Wu L. (2014) Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming, Nature Climate Change, volume 4, no. 2, pages 111-116, DOI:10.1038/nclimate2100.
• Tietsche S, Day JJ, Guemas V, Hurlin WJ, Keeley SPE, Matei D, Msadek R, Collins M, Hawkins E. (2014) Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 41, no. 3, pages 1035-1043, DOI:10.1002/2013GL058755.

2013

• Russon T, Tudhope AW, Hegerl GC, Collins M, Tindall J. (2013) Inter-annual tropical Pacific climate variability in an isotope-enabled CGCM: implications for interpreting coral stable oxygen isotope records of ENSO, volume 9, no. 1, pages 741-773, DOI:10.5194/cpd-9-741-2013.
• Collins M, AchutaRao K, Ashok K, Bhandari S, Mitra AK, Prakash S, Srivastava R, Turner A. (2013) CORRESPONDENCE: Observational challenges in evaluating climate models, NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, volume 3, no. 11, pages 940-941, DOI:10.1038/nclimate2012. [PDF]
• Hemming D, Betts R, Collins M. (2013) Corrigendum to Sensitivity and uncertainty of modelled terrestrial net primary productivity to doubled CO2 and associated climate change for a relatively large perturbed physics ensemble [Agric. Forest Meteorol. 170 (2013) 79-88], Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, volume 173, DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.02.015.
• Cai W, Zheng XT, Weller E, Collins M, Cowan T, Lengaigne M, Yu W, Yamagata T. (2013) Projected response of the Indian Ocean Dipole to greenhouse warming, Nature Geoscience, volume 6, no. 12, pages 999-1007, DOI:10.1038/ngeo2009.
• Lambert FH, Harris GR, Collins M, Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Booth BBB. (2013) Interactions between perturbations to different Earth system components simulated by a fully-coupled climate model, Climate Dynamics, volume 41, no. 11-12, pages 3055-3072, DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1618-3.
• Collins M, Achutarao K, Ashok K, Bhandari S, Mitra AK, Prakash S, Srivastava R, Turner A. (2013) Observational challenges in evaluating climate models, Nature Climate Change, volume 3, no. 11, pages 940-941, DOI:10.1038/nclimate2012.
• Yokohata T, Annan JD, Collins M, Jackson CS, Shiogama H, Watanabe M, Emori S, Yoshimori M, Abe M, Webb MJ. (2013) Reliability and importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles, Climate Dynamics, volume 41, no. 9-10, pages 2745-2763, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-1733-9.
• Long DJ, Collins M. (2013) Quantifying global climate feedbacks, responses and forcing under abrupt and gradual CO2 forcing, Climate Dynamics, volume 41, no. 9-10, pages 2471-2479, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-1677-0.
• Russon T, Tudhope AW, Hegerl GC, Collins M, Tindall J. (2013) Inter-annual tropical Pacific climate variability in an isotope-enabled CGCM: Implications for interpreting coral stable oxygen isotope records of ENSO, Climate of the Past, volume 9, no. 4, pages 1543-1557, DOI:10.5194/cp-9-1543-2013.
• Harris GR, Sexton DMH, Booth BBB, Collins M, Murphy JM. (2013) Probabilistic projections of transient climate change, Climate Dynamics, volume 40, no. 11-12, pages 2937-2972, DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1647-y.
• Hemming D, Betts R, Collins M. (2013) Sensitivity and uncertainty of modelled terrestrial net primary productivity to doubled CO₂ and associated climate change for a relatively large perturbed physics ensemble (vol 170, pg 79, 2013), AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY, volume 173, pages 154-154, DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.02.015. [PDF]
• Yokohata T, Annan JD, Collins M, Jackson CS, Shiogama H, Watanabe M, Emori S, Yoshimori M, Abe M, Webb MJ. (2013) Reliability and importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles, Climate Dynamics, pages 1-19.
• Hemming D, Betts R, Collins M. (2013) Corrigendum to " Sensitivity and uncertainty of modelled terrestrial net primary productivity to doubled CO2 and associated climate change for a relatively large perturbed physics ensemble" [Agric. Forest Meteorol. 170 (2013) 79-88], Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, volume 173, pages 154-154.
• Harris GR, Sexton DMH, Booth BBB, Collins M, Murphy JM. (2013) Probabilistic projections of transient climate change, Climate Dynamics, pages 1-36.
• Long DJ, Collins M. (2013) Quantifying global climate feedbacks, responses and forcing under abrupt and gradual CO2 forcing, Cimlate Dynamics, pages 1-9, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-1677-0.
• Hemming D, Betts R, Collins M. (2013) Sensitivity and uncertainty of modelled terrestrial net primary productivity to doubled CO2 and associated climate change for a relatively large perturbed physics ensemble, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, volume 170, pages 79-88, DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.10.016.
• van Haren R, van Oldenborgh GJ, Lenderink G, Collins M, Hazeleger W. (2013) SST and circulation trend biases cause an underestimation of European precipitation trends, Climate Dynamics, volume 40, no. 1-2, pages 1-20, DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1401-5.

2012

• Collins M, James IN. (2012) Regular baroclinic transient waves in a simplified global circulation model of the Martian atmosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets, volume 100, no. E7, pages 14421-14432, DOI:10.1029/95je01408. [PDF]
• Lambert FH, Harris GR, Collins M, Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Booth BBB. (2012) Interactions between perturbations to different Earth system components simulated by a fully-coupled climate model, Climate Dynamics, pages 1-18.
• Stephenson DB, Collins M, Rougier JC, Chandler RE. (2012) Statistical problems in the probabilistic prediction of climate change†, Environmetrics, volume 23, no. 5, pages 364-372, DOI:10.1002/env.2153.
• Watanabe M, Kug JS, Jin FF, Collins M, Ohba M, Wittenberg AT. (2012) Uncertainty in the ENSO amplitude change from the past to the future, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 39, no. 20, DOI:10.1029/2012GL053305.
• Collins M. (2012) Oceanography: Pacific temperature trends, Nature Climate Change, volume 2, no. 9, pages 646-647, DOI:10.1038/nclimate1673.
• Yokohata T, Annan JD, Collins M, Jackson CS, Tobis M, Webb MJ, Hargreaves JC. (2012) Reliability of multi-model and structurally different single-model ensembles, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 39, no. 3-4, pages 599-616, DOI:10.1007/s00382-011-1203-1. [PDF]
• Cai W, Lengaigne M, Borlace S, Collins M, Cowan T, McPhaden MJ, Timmermann A, Power S, Brown J, Menkes C. (2012) More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming, Nature, volume 488, no. 7411, pages 365-369, DOI:10.1038/nature11358.
• Guilyardi E, Cai W, Collins M, Fedorov A, Jin FF, Kumar A, Sun DZ, Wittenberg A. (2012) New strategies for evaluating ENSO process es in climate models, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, volume 93, no. 2, pages 235-238, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00106.1.
• Yokohata T, Annan JD, Collins M, Jackson CS, Tobis M, Webb MJ, Hargreaves JC. (2012) Reliability of multi-model and structurally different single-model ensembles, Climate Dynamics, volume 39, no. 3, pages 599-616, DOI:10.1007/s00382-011-1203-1.
• Sexton DMH, Murphy JM, Collins M, Webb MJ. (2012) Multivariate probabilistic projections using imperfect climate models part I: outline of methodology, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 38, no. 11-12, pages 2513-2542, DOI:10.1007/s00382-011-1208-9. [PDF]
• Stephenson DB, Collins M, Rougier JC, Chandler RE. (2012) Statistical problems in the probabilistic prediction of climate change, Environmetrics, DOI:10.1002/env.2153.
• Collins M, Chandler RE, Cox PM, Huthnance JM, Rougier J, Stephenson DB. (2012) Quantifying future climate change, Nature Climate Change, volume 2, no. 6, pages 403-409, DOI:10.1038/nclimate1414.
• van Haren R, van Oldenborgh GJ, Lenderink G, Collins M, Hazeleger W. (2012) SST and circulation trend biases cause an underestimation of European precipitation trends, Climate Dynamics, pages 1-20.
• Booth BBB, Jones CD, Collins M, Totterdell IJ, Cox PM, Sitch S, Huntingford C, Betts RA, Harris GR, Lloyd J. (2012) High sensitivity of future global warming to land carbon cycle processes, Environmental Research Letters, volume 7, no. 2, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024002.
• Rowlands DJ, Frame DJ, Ackerley D, Aina T, Booth BBB, Christensen C, Collins M, Faull N, Forest CE, Grandey BS. (2012) Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble, Nature Geoscience, volume 5, no. 4, pages 256-260, DOI:10.1038/ngeo1430.
• Guilyardi E, Cai W, Collins M, Fedorov A, Jin F-F, Kumar A, Sun D-Z, Wittenberg A. (2012) NEW STRATEGIES FOR EVALUATING ENSO PROCESSES IN CLIMATE MODELS, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, volume 93, no. 2, pages 235-238, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00106.1. [PDF]
• Ho CK, Stephenson DB, Collins M, Ferro CAT, Brown SJ. (2012) Calibration strategies: a source of additional uncertainty in climate change projections, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, volume 93, pages 21-26, DOI:10.1175/2011BAMS3110.1. [PDF]

2011

• Hemming D, Betts R, Collins M. (2011) Sensitivity and uncertainty of modelled terrestrial net primary productivity to doubled CO 2 and associated climate change for a relatively large perturbed physics ensemble, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology.
• Yokohata T, Annan JD, Collins M, Jackson CS, Tobis M, Webb MJ, Hargreaves JC. (2011) Reliability of multi-model and structurally different single-model ensembles, Climate Dynamics, pages 1-18.
• Beits RA, Collins M, Hemming DL, Jones CD, Lowe JA, Sanderson MG. (2011) When could global warming reach 4°C?, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, volume 369, no. 1934, pages 67-84, DOI:10.1098/rsta.2010.0292.
• Pope JO, Collins M, Haywood AM, Dowsett HJ, Hunter SJ, Lunt DJ, Pickering SJ, Pound MJ. (2011) Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions for the Pliocene (Plio-QUMP): Initial results, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, volume 309, no. 1-2, pages 128-140, DOI:10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.05.004.
• Collins M, Fricker T, Hermanson L. (2011) From observations to forecasts - Part 9: What is decadal forecasting?, Weather, volume 66, no. 6, pages 160-164, DOI:10.1002/wea.794.
• Collins M, Booth BBB, Bhaskaran B, Harris GR, Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Webb MJ. (2011) Climate model errors, feedbacks and forcings: a comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 36, no. 9-10, pages 1737-1766, DOI:10.1007/s00382-010-0808-0. [PDF]
• Betts RA, Collins M, Hemming DL, Jones CD, Lowe JA, Sanderson MG. (2011) When could global warming reach 4°C?, Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci, volume 369, no. 1934, pages 67-84, DOI:10.1098/rsta.2010.0292. [PDF]

2010

• Joshi MM, Webb MJ, Maycock AC, Collins M. (2010) Stratospheric water vapour and high climate sensitivity in a version of the HadSM3 climate model, volume 10, no. 3, pages 6241-6255, DOI:10.5194/acpd-10-6241-2010.
• Collins M. (2010) The long road ahead, Wiley, DOI:10.1002/wea.572.
• Collins M, Booth BBB, Bhaskaran B, Harris G, Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Webb MJ. (2010) A comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles: Model errors, feedbacks and forcings, Climate Dynamics.
• Harris GR, Collins M, Sexton DMH, Murphy JM, Booth BBB. (2010) Probabilistic projections for 21st century European climate, NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, volume 10, no. 9, pages 2009-2020, DOI:10.5194/nhess-10-2009-2010. [PDF]
• Challinor AJ, Simelton ES, Fraser EDG, Hemming D, Collins M. (2010) Increased crop failure due to climate change: Assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China, Environmental Research Letters, volume 5, no. 3, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034012.
• Hemming D, Buontempo C, Burke E, Collins M, Kaye N. (2010) How uncertain are climate model projections of water availability indicators across the Middle East?, Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci, volume 368, no. 1931, pages 5117-5135, DOI:10.1098/rsta.2010.0174. [PDF]
• Joshi MM, Webb MJ, Maycock AC, Collins M. (2010) Stratospheric water vapour and high climate sensitivity in a version of the HadSM3 climate model, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, volume 10, no. 15, pages 7161-7167, DOI:10.5194/acp-10-7161-2010.
• Philip SY, Collins M, van Oldenborgh GJ, van den Hurk BJJM. (2010) The role of atmosphere and ocean physical processes in ENSO in a perturbed physics coupled climate model, OCEAN SCIENCE, volume 6, no. 2, pages 441-459, DOI:10.5194/os-6-441-2010. [PDF]
• Collins M, An SI, Cai W, Ganachaud A, Guilyardi E, Jin FF, Jochum M, Lengaigne M, Power S, Timmermann A. (2010) The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Nĩo, Nature Geoscience, volume 3, no. 6, pages 391-397, DOI:10.1038/ngeo868.
• Yokohata T, Webb MJ, Collins M, Williams KD, Yoshimori M, Hargreaves JC, Annan JD. (2010) Structural Similarities and Differences in Climate Responses to CO₂ Increase between Two Perturbed Physics Ensembles, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 23, no. 6, pages 1392-1410, DOI:10.1175/2009JCLI2917.1. [PDF]
• Brierley CM, Collins M, Thorpe AJ. (2010) The impact of perturbations to ocean-model parameters on climate and climate change in a coupled model, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 34, no. 2-3, pages 325-343, DOI:10.1007/s00382-008-0486-3. [PDF]

2009

• Philip SY, Collins M, van Oldenborgh GJ, van den Hurk BJJM. (2009) The role of atmosphere and ocean physical processes in ENSO, volume 6, no. 3, pages 2037-2083, DOI:10.5194/osd-6-2037-2009.
• Collins M. (2009) Insight despite imperfection (vol 2, pg 315, 2009), NATURE GEOSCIENCE, volume 2, no. 7, pages 470-470, DOI:10.1038/ngeo561. [PDF]
• Collins M. (2009) Insight despite imperfection (vol 2, pg 315, 2009), NATURE GEOSCIENCE, volume 2, no. 5. [PDF]
• Bonham SG, Haywood AM, Lunt DJ, Collins M, Salzmann U. (2009) El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Pliocene climate and equifinality, PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES, volume 367, no. 1886, pages 127-156, DOI:10.1098/rsta.2008.0212. [PDF]
• Guilyardi E, Wittenberg A, Fedorov A, Collins M, Wang C, Capotondi A, van Oldenborgh GJ, Stockdale T. (2009) UNDERSTANDING EL NINO IN OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS Progress and Challenges, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, volume 90, no. 3, pages 325-+, DOI:10.1175/2008BAMS2387.1. [PDF]
• Collins M. (2009) Insight despite imperfection, NATURE GEOSCIENCE, volume 2, no. 5, pages 315-316, DOI:10.1038/ngeo511. [PDF]
• Brierley CM, Thorpe AJ, Collins M. (2009) An example of the dependence of the transient climate response on the temperature of the modelled climate state, ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, volume 10, no. 1, pages 23-28, DOI:10.1002/asl.205. [PDF]

2008

• Brown J, Collins M, Tudhope AW, Toniazzo T. (2008) Modelling mid-Holocene tropical climate and ENSO variability: towards constraining predictions of future change with palaeo-data, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 30, no. 1, pages 19-36, DOI:10.1007/s00382-007-0270-9. [PDF]
• Brown J, Tudhope AW, Collins M, McGregor HV. (2008) Mid-Holocene ENSO: Issues in quantitative model-proxy data comparisons, PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, volume 23, no. 3, article no. ARTN PA3202, DOI:10.1029/2007PA001512. [PDF]
• Toniazzo T, Collins M, Brown J. (2008) The variation of ENSO characteristics associated with atmospheric parameter perturbations in a coupled model, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 30, no. 6, pages 643-656, DOI:10.1007/s00382-007-0313-2. [PDF]
• Huntingford C, Fisher RA, Mercado L, Booth BBB, Sitch S, Harris PP, Cox PM, Jones CD, Betts RA, Malhi Y. (2008) "Towards quantifying uncertainty in predictions of Amazon """"dieback""""", Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. B. [PDF]
• Cox PM, Harris PP, Huntingford C, Betts RA, Collins M, Jones CD, Jupp TE, Marengo JA, Nobre CA. (2008) Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution, Nature, volume 453, no. 7192, pages 212-215, DOI:10.1038/nature06960. [PDF]
• Keeley SPE, Collins M, Thorpe AJ. (2008) Northern hemisphere winter atmospheric climate: modes of natural variability and climate change, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 31, no. 2-3, pages 195-211, DOI:10.1007/s00382-007-0346-6. [PDF]
• Good P, Lowe JA, Collins M, Moufouma-Okia W. (2008) An objective tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient index for studies of south Amazon dry-season climate variability and change, Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci, volume 363, no. 1498, pages 1761-1766, DOI:10.1098/rstb.2007.0024. [PDF]
• Cox PM, Harris PP, Huntingford C, Betts RA, Collins M, Jones CD, Jupp TE, Marengo JA, Nobre CA. (2008) Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution, Nature, volume 453, pages 212-216. [PDF]

2007

• Thorne PW, Parker DE, Santer BD, McCarthy MP, Sexton DMH, Webb MJ, Murphy JM, Collins M, Titchner HA, Jones GS. (2007) Tropical vertical temperature trends: A real discrepancy?, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 34, no. 16, article no. ARTN L61702, DOI:10.1029/2007GL029875. [PDF]
• Collins M, Brierley CM, MacVean M, Booth BBB, Harris GR. (2007) The sensitivity of the rate of transient climate change to ocean physics perturbations, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 20, no. 10, pages 2315-2320, DOI:10.1175/JCLI4116.1. [PDF]
• Collins M. (2007) Climate crash: Abrupt climate change and what it means for our future, GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL, volume 173, pages 94-94, DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4959.2007.233_3.x. [PDF]
• Pope V, Brown S, Clark R, Collins M, Collins W, Dearden C, Gunson J, Harris G, Jones C, Keen A. (2007) The Met Office Hadley Centre climate modelling capability: the competing requirements for improved resolution, complexity and dealing with uncertainty, Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci, volume 365, no. 1860, pages 2635-2657, DOI:10.1098/rsta.2007.2087. [PDF]
• Murphy JM, Booth BBB, Collins M, Harris GR, Sexton DMH, Webb MJ. (2007) A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles, Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci, volume 365, no. 1857, pages 1993-2028, DOI:10.1098/rsta.2007.2077. [PDF]
• Collins M. (2007) Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change, Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci, volume 365, no. 1857, pages 1957-1970, DOI:10.1098/rsta.2007.2068. [PDF]
• Betts RA, Boucher O, Collins M, Cox PM, Falloon PD, Gedney N, Hemming DL, Huntingford C, Jones CD, Sexton DMH. (2007) Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide, Nature, volume 448, no. 7157, pages 1037-1041, DOI:10.1038/nature06045. [PDF]

2006

• Collins M. (2006) The flow of energy through the earth's climate system, Wiley, DOI:10.1256/wea.119.04.
• Collins M. (2006) Extreme weather and climate events, Weather, volume 59, no. 5, pages 138-138, DOI:10.1256/wea.40.04.
• Collins M, Botzet A, Carril AF, Drange H, Jouzeau A, Latif M, Masina S, Otteraa OH, Pohlmann H, Sorteberg A. (2006) Interannual to decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic: A multimodel-ensemble study, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 19, no. 7, pages 1195-1203, DOI:10.1175/JCLI3654.1. [PDF]
• Collins M, Booth BBB, Harris GR, Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Webb MJ. (2006) Towards quantifying uncertainty in transient climate change, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 27, no. 2-3, pages 127-147, DOI:10.1007/s00382-006-0121-0. [PDF]
• Harris GR, Sexton DMH, Booth BBB, Collins M, Murphy JM, Webb MJ. (2006) Frequency distributions of transient regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles of general circulation model simulations, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 27, no. 4, pages 357-375, DOI:10.1007/s00382-006-0142-8. [PDF]
• Latif M, Collins M, Pohlmann H, Keenlyside N. (2006) A review of predictability studies of Atlantic sector climate on decadal time scales, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 19, no. 23, pages 5971-5987, DOI:10.1175/JCLI3945.1. [PDF]
• Mosedale TJ, Stephenson DB, Collins M, Mills TC. (2006) Granger Causality of Coupled Climate Processes: Ocean Feedback on the North Atlantic Oscillation, Journal of Climate, volume 19, no. 7, pages 1182-1194, DOI:10.1175/JCLI3653.1. [PDF]
• Stephenson DB, Pavan V, Collins M, Junge MM, Quadrelli R, Participating CMIP2 Modelling Grou. (2006) North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and the impact on European winter climate: a CMIP2 multi-model assessment, CLIM DYNAM, volume 27, no. 4, pages 401-420, DOI:10.1007/s00382-006-0140-x.

2005

• van Oldenborgh GJ, Philip S, Collins M. (2005) El Niño in a changing climate: a multi-model study, volume 2, no. 3, pages 267-298, DOI:10.5194/osd-2-267-2005.
• Sutton RT, Mathieu P-P, Collins M, Dong B. (2005) Reply, Journal of Climate, volume 18, no. 14, pages 2773-2774, DOI:10.1175/jcli3442.1. [PDF]
• van Oldenborgh GJ, Philip SY, Collins M. (2005) El Nino in a changing climate: a multi-model study, OCEAN SCIENCE, volume 1, no. 2, pages 81-95, DOI:10.5194/os-1-81-2005. [PDF]
• Collins M. (2005) El Nino- or La Nina-like climate change?, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 24, no. 1, pages 89-104, DOI:10.1007/s00382-004-0478-x. [PDF]
• Mosedale TJ, Stephenson DB, Collins M. (2005) Atlantic Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction: A Stochastic Climate Model-Based Diagnosis, Journal of Climate, volume 18, no. 7, pages 1086-1095, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-3315.1. [PDF]
• Frame DJ, Booth BBB, Kettleborough JA, Stainforth DA, Gregory JM, Collins M, Allen MR. (2005) Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 32, no. 9, article no. ARTN L09702, DOI:10.1029/2004GL022241. [PDF]
• Stainforth DA, Aina T, Christensen C, Collins M, Faull N, Frame DJ, Kettleborough JA, Knight S, Martin A, Murphy JM. (2005) Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases, Nature, volume 433, no. 7024, pages 403-406, DOI:10.1038/nature03301. [PDF]

2004

• Stainforth DA, Allen MR, Frame D, Kettleborough J, Christensen C, Aina T, Collins M. (2004) Climateprediction.net: A Global Community for Research in Climate Physics, Environmental Online Communication, Springer Nature, 101-112, DOI:10.1007/978-1-4471-3798-6_12.
• de F. Forster PM, Collins M. (2004) Quantifying the water vapour feedback associated with post-Pinatubo global cooling, Climate Dynamics, volume 23, no. 2, pages 207-214, DOI:10.1007/s00382-004-0431-z. [PDF]
• Mathieu P-P, Sutton RT, Dong B, Collins M. (2004) Predictability of Winter Climate over the North Atlantic European Region during ENSO Events, Journal of Climate, volume 17, no. 10, pages 1953-1974, DOI:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1953:powcot>2.0.co;2. [PDF]
• Timmermann A, Jin FF, Collins M. (2004) Intensification of the annual cycle in the tropical Pacific due to greenhouse warming, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 31, no. 12, article no. ARTN L12208, DOI:10.1029/2004GL019442. [PDF]
• Guilyardi E, Gualdi S, Slingo J, Navarra A, Delecluse P, Cole J, Madec G, Roberts M, Latif M, Terray L. (2004) Representing El Nino in coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs: The dominant role of the atmospheric component, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 17, no. 24, pages 4623-4629, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-3260.1. [PDF]
• Betts RA, Cox PM, Collins M, Harris PP, Huntingford C, Jones CD. (2004) The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming, THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, volume 78, no. 1-3, pages 157-175, DOI:10.1007/s00704-004-0050-y. [PDF]
• Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Barnett DN, Jones GS, Webb MJ, Collins M, Stainforth DA. (2004) Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations, Nature, volume 430, no. 7001, pages 768-772, DOI:10.1038/nature02771. [PDF]
• Cox PM, Betts RA, Collins M, Harris PP. (2004) Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, volume 78, no. 1-3, pages 137-156, DOI:10.1007/s00704-004-0049-4.

2003

• Tudhope S, Collins M. (2003) The past and future of El Niño, Nature, volume 424, no. 6946, pages 261-262, DOI:10.1038/424261a. [PDF]
• Collins M, Sinha B. (2003) Predictability of decadal variations in the thermohaline circulation and climate, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 30, no. 6, DOI:10.1029/2002gl016504. [PDF]

2002

• M. C. (2002) Climate predictability on interannual to decadal time scales: the initial value problem, Climate Dynamics, volume 19, no. 8, pages 671-692, DOI:10.1007/s00382-002-0254-8. [PDF]
• Collins M, Osborn TJ, Tett SFB, Briffa KR, Schweingruber FH. (2002) A Comparison of the Variability of a Climate Model with Paleotemperature Estimates from a Network of Tree-Ring Densities, Journal of Climate, volume 15, no. 13, pages 1497-1515, DOI:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1497:acotvo>2.0.co;2. [PDF]
• Collins M, Frame D, Sinha B, Wilson C. (2002) How far ahead could we predict El Niño?, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 29, no. 10, DOI:10.1029/2001gl013919. [PDF]
• Stainforth D, Kettleborough J, Allen M, Collins M, Heaps A, Murphy J. (2002) Distributed computing for public-interest climate modeling research, Computing in Science & Engineering, volume 4, no. 3, pages 82-89, DOI:10.1109/5992.998644. [PDF]
• Collins M, Allen MR. (2002) Assessing the Relative Roles of Initial and Boundary Conditions in Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictability, Journal of Climate, volume 15, no. 21, pages 3104-3109, DOI:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3104:atrroi>2.0.co;2. [PDF]

2001

• Collins M, Tett SFB, Cooper C. (2001) The internal climate variability of HadCM3, a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments, Climate Dynamics, volume 17, no. 1, pages 61-81, DOI:10.1007/s003820000094. [PDF]
• Jones CD, Collins M, Cox PM, Spall SA. (2001) The carbon cycle response to ENSO: a coupled climate-carbon cycle model study, Journal of Climate, volume 14, pages 4113-4129.

2000

• Collins M. (2000) The El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the Second Hadley Centre Coupled Model and Its Response to Greenhouse Warming, Journal of Climate, volume 13, no. 7, pages 1299-1312, DOI:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1299:tenoso>2.0.co;2. [PDF]
• Collins M. (2000) Understanding uncertainties in the response of ENSO to greenhouse warming, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 27, no. 21, pages 3509-3512, DOI:10.1029/2000gl011747. [PDF]

1999

• Lewis SR, Collins M, Read PL, Forget F, Hourdin F, Fournier R, Hourdin C, Talagrand O, Huot J. (1999) A climate database for Mars, Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets, volume 104, no. E10, pages 24177-24194, DOI:10.1029/1999je001024. [PDF]
• Forget F, Hourdin F, Fournier R, Hourdin C, Talagrand O, Collins M, Lewis SR, Read PL, Huot J. (1999) Improved general circulation models of the Martian atmosphere from the surface to above 80 km, Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets, volume 104, no. E10, pages 24155-24175, DOI:10.1029/1999je001025. [PDF]

1998

• Read PL, Collins M, Früh W-G, Lewis SR, Lovegrove AF. (1998) Wave interactions and baroclinic chaos: a paradigm for long timescale variability in planetary atmospheres, Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, volume 9, no. 1-2, pages 231-249, DOI:10.1016/s0960-0779(97)00063-5. [PDF]

1997

• Read PL, Collins M, Forget F, Fournier R, Hourdin F, Lewis SR, Talagrand O, Taylor FW, Thomas NPJ. (1997) A GCM climate database for Mars: For mission planning and for scientific studies, Advances in Space Research, volume 19, no. 8, pages 1213-1222, DOI:10.1016/s0273-1177(97)00272-x. [PDF]
• Lewis SR, Collins M, Read PL. (1997) Data assimilation with a Martian atmospheric GCM: An example using thermal data, Advances in Space Research, volume 19, no. 8, pages 1267-1270, DOI:10.1016/s0273-1177(97)00280-9. [PDF]
• Collins M, Lewis SR, Read PL. (1997) Gravity wave drag in a global circulation model of the Martian atmosphere: Parameterisation and validation, Advances in Space Research, volume 19, no. 8, pages 1245-1254, DOI:10.1016/s0273-1177(97)00277-9. [PDF]

1996

• Collins M, Lewis SR, Read PL, Hourdin F. (1996) Baroclinic wave transitions in the Martian atmosphere, ICARUS, volume 120, no. 2, pages 344-357, DOI:10.1006/icar.1996.0055. [PDF]
• Lewis SR, Read PL, Collins M. (1996) Martian atmospheric data assimilation with a simplified general circulation model: orbiter and lander networks, Planetary and Space Science, volume 44, no. 11, pages 1395-1409, DOI:10.1016/s0032-0633(96)00058-x. [PDF]

1995

• Collins M, Lewis SR, Read PL. (1995) Regular and irregular baroclinic waves in a martian general circulation model: A role for diurnal forcing?, Advances in Space Research, volume 16, no. 6, pages 3-7, DOI:10.1016/0273-1177(95)00243-8. [PDF]

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