Prof James Screen
Robust spatial projections of real-world climate change
Natural Environment Research Council £3.7m; 2016-2020
This project aims to provide a step-change in the ability of climate scientists to produce robust projections of climate change and to quantify the uncertainties in projections. A new framework will be developed that combines information from models, observations and our basic understanding of climate with modern statistical techniques to produce projections. This new framework will be applied to three important climate regimes of Earth: tropical and subtropical temperature and precipitation change; middle latitude cyclones and anti-cyclones; and polar temperature and sea-ice changes. It brings together leading UK scientists (many are IPCC authors) from the Universities of Exeter, Reading, Oxford and East Anglia, and the Met Office, to address this grand challenge in climate science. It aims to precipitate a cultural shift that unifies diverse approaches from techniques to understand climate process and statistical methods and consolidate the UKs position as a world-leading centre for climate projection science.
Persistence of seasonal climate anomalies: Drivers, mechanisms and process-based diagnostics
Natural Environment Research Council £1.38m; 2014-2018
With the ultimate goal of improving seasonal forecasts, this project aims to advance mechanistic understanding of three key boundary conditions that influence European seasonal weather: North Atlantic upper-ocean heat content, Arctic sea-ice, and the stratosphere. The persistence of atmospheric phenomena responsible for unusual summer weather and climate will be the principal focus. The project will use a mixture of state-of-the-art coupled climate model experiments, idealised dynamical frameworks and advanced statistical techniques.PAST PROJECTS
Arctic climate change and its midlatitude impacts
Natural Environment Research Council Fellowship £285K; 2013-2016
The Arctic climate is changing fast, with far reaching repercussions. There is an urgent need for scientific projections of future Arctic conditions to inform policy decisions. This project aims to improve our understanding of Arctic climate change and its impacts on weather and climate in the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, and of the physical processes that govern these interactions. This objective will be achieved through complementary analyses of observations and state-of-the-art climate model simulations (CMIP5), by performing idealised numerical modeling experiments and employing innovative statistical methods. The Fellowship will be hosted by the University of Exeter with national (UK Met Office Hadley Centre) and international (US National Center for Atmospheric Research) partners. It will enhance our knowledge, and ultimately our ability to predict, future Arctic climate change and hence assess the potential environmental, socio-economic and political impacts that may result.