event
Tuesday 31 Jul 2012: Relative magnitudes of uncertainty sources in assessing climate change impacts on water supply security in Adelaide, South Australia
Fiona Paton - University of Adelaide, South Australia
HAR170 11:00-12:00
The sources of uncertainty in projecting the impacts of climate change on runoff are increasingly well recognized; however, translating these uncertainties to urban water security has received less attention in the literature. Furthermore, runoff cannot be used as a surrogate for water supply security when studying the impacts of climate change due to the non-linear transformations in modeling water supply and additional uncertainties, such as demand. Results demonstrate that demand and natural rainfall variability are the greatest sources of uncertainty when examining the impacts of climate change on Adelaide's southern water supply system reliability. In addition, a case is made for the importance of assessing water supply security through time.
