Friday 25 Sep 2015: Decision Making Strategies for Integrated Water Resources Management
Professor Shaul Shorek - Ben-Gurion University of the NEGEV
Harrison 170 13:30-14:30
We develop a Water-Food-Energy (WFE) Nexus framework for decision making strategies to support quantifiable Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). The strategy is novel as it focuses on the “realize” phase prior to mathematical procedures of Decision Support Systems (DSS) addressing the “how” phase. It is based on developing indicator maps expressed as products of the normalized WFE constituents over time periods and geographical spaces, and surfaces in which these constituents represent three-dimensional coordinates. These imply simple practical procedure as it enables pinpointing answering managerial quest for "to what extent …. in comparison to…". Two other strategies are conceptually introduced. One considers the DSS for IWRM by ranking action alternatives vs. criteria. The other addresses the interrelations among nodes of water related information. Influencing nodes may be ordered according to their prominence, which enables to obtain a detailed plan of causes (influencing nodes) and their potential effect (influenced nodes).
The WFE nexus strategy is demonstrated by using a case study of regional family expenditure across 14 sub-regions, for the years 2003 to 2011. Our finding indicates that expenditure on water is significantly higher in comparison to food and the least on energy. Moreover, we demonstrate the nexus virtue of constituent’s dependency and that of directional information and causality. These in terms of a “turning point” in the normalized W, F and E values at the year 2007 which coincides with a sharp price increase of wheat and rice crops in the U.S. and Thailand, respectively.