Thursday 05 Nov 2015: Statistical Science Seminar: Regional Climate Modelling: Artifacts and Added Value
John Scinocca - Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
One-way nesting has become the de facto approach used by regional climate models (RCMs) to downscale climate-change signals produced by global climate models (GCMs). At its core, one-way nesting is a deterministic modelling approach applied to an inherently chaotic system. As such, it can be argued that RCMs are, in principle, ill posed relative to their GCM counterparts and can never be without artifacts. Such arguments, however, do not preclude the possibility that such RCMs can add value to an exiting GCM result. In this presentation these issues will be clarified and a framework proposed to more objectively identify potential areas of added value when an RCM is used to downscale GCM climate change results.