Overview
I work within the Monthly to Decadal Variability and Prediction group at the Met Office and started my PhD with Exeter University in January 2022: "Bifurcations of climate forecast ensembles prior to extreme events". I am supervised by Professor Adam Scaife and Dr William Seviour (Exeter), and Dr Nick Dunstone and Dr Doug Smith (Met Office)
The core aim of my research is to understand the precursors and drivers of divergence amongst climate forecast ensembles. Using initialised seasonal climate forecasts, the pathways of individual ensemble members can be assessed to potentially identify systematic influences on extreme climate events and our ability to predict them.
An initial focus is on Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs). For these events, ensemble members can be segregated by those with and without SSW events to examine what causes the bifurcation of the climate system in this case. This will potentially reveal important medium-range characteristics which may be used to improve seasonal forecast skill through ensemble sub-selection. My research focus will also extend to other important phenomena including ENSO which develops on longer timescales of order a year.
Find out more about my research from my Met Office profile page.
