Mathematics and Statistics

Photo of Prof Trevor Bailey

Prof Trevor Bailey

Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics

 T.C.Bailey@exeter.ac.uk

Overview

Professor Bailey joined the University of Exeter in January 1986 from the University of New South Wales, Australia. He retired from Exeter in August 2017. His research interests focused on applied statistical modelling  (particularly spatial-temporal  epidemiology, environmental impacts on public health, and spatial statistics). Much of his research was collaborative involving academics and professionals from a variety of  fields such as medicine,  public health, geography, computer science, behavioural science and education. He also worked with commercial organisations and government agencies. He received regular invitations to speak at specialist meetings both in the UK and overseas and frequently gave short courses or seminar series on various statistical topics at Universities in Europe, South America and Australasia. More details of his research work may be found at  google scholar

Research Interests

  • Applied statistical modelling
  • Spatial-temporal statistical modelling
  • Spatial and environmental epidemiology

Teaching Interests

Professor Bailey held a range of senior leadership/management  roles relating to Education during his time at Exeter University. In partcular, he was Associate Dean (Education) for the College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences for several years. He is a Fellow of the  Higher Education Academy and taught a wide variety of general and specialised topics at UG and PG level in Statistics at the University including courses on Statistical Modelling,  Advanced Statistical Modelling and Spatial Statistics. He also had a particular interest in post 16 mathematics education and was one of the founding governors of the Exeter Mathematics School. 

Qualifications

MSc, PhD

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Publications

Copyright Notice: Any articles made available for download are for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and the copyright holder.

| 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | 1993 | 1992 | 1991 | 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | 1987 | 1985 | 1984 | 1983 | 1982 | 1981 |

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

  • Lowe R, Barcellos C, Coelho CA, Catao RDC, Bailey TC, Coelho GE, Ramalho WM, Carvalho MS, Stephenson DB, Rodo X. (2015) EVALUATION OF A DENGUE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, volume 93, no. 4, pages 45-45. [PDF]
  • Zabala MDT, Littlejohn G, Jayaraman S, Studholme D, Bailey T, Lawson T, Tillich M, Licht D, Boelter B, Delfino L. (2015) Chloroplasts play a central role in plant defence and are targeted by pathogen effectors, NATURE PLANTS, volume 1, no. 6, article no. ARTN 15074, DOI:10.1038/NPLANTS.2015.74. [PDF]
  • Lowe R, Rodo X, Barcellos C, Carvalho M, Coelho CAS, Bailey TC, Jupp T, Stephenson DB, Coelho GE, Graham R. (2015) Dengue epidemic early warning system for Brazil, UNISDR Scientific and Technical Advisory Group, volume Case Studies 2015. [PDF]
  • Lowe R, Carvalho MS, Coelho CAS, Barcellos C, Bailey TC, Stephenson DB, Rodó X. (2015) Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts of epidemics, The Lancet. Infectious diseases, volume 15, no. 1, DOI:10.1016/s1473-3099(14)71031-x.

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

  • Economou T, Kapelan Z, Bailey T. (2009) A zero-inflated bayesian model for the prediction of water pipe bursts, Proceedings of the 10th Annual Water Distribution Systems Analysis Conference, WDSA 2008, pages 724-734, DOI:10.1061/41024(340)61.
  • Lowe R, Bailey TC, Stephenson DB, Graham R, Coelho CAS, Carvalho M, Barcellos C. (2009) Climate-based dengue predictions for Brazil, Proceedings of StatGIS09: "GeoInformatics for Environmental Surveillance", Milos, Greece, 17th - 19th Jun 2009.
  • Bailey TC, Krzanowski WJ. (2009) Sructuring Complex Correlations: An Overview of Multivariate Spatial Approaches, 57th session of the International Statistical Institute, Durban, South Africa, 16th - 22nd Aug 2009.

2008

  • Economou T, Bailey TC, Kapelan Z. (2008) A hidden semi-Markov model for occurrences of water pipe bursts, 23rd International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Utrecht, The Netherlands, 7th - 11th Jul 2008.
  • Economou T, Kapelan Z, Bailey T. (2008) A Zero-Inflated Bayesian Model for the Prediction of Water Pipe Bursts, South Africa.
  • Bailey TC, Economou T. (2008) A hidden semi-Markov model for recurrent events, presented at XXIV International Biometric Conference, Dublin, Ireland, 13th - 18th Jul 2008.

2007

  • Economou T, Kapelan Z, Bailey T. (2007) An aggregated hierarchical Bayesian model for the prediction of pipe failures, Proceedings of the Combined International Conference of Computing and Control for the Water Industry, CCWI2007 and Sustainable Urban Water Management, SUWM2007, pages 13-16.
  • Economou T, Bailey TC, Kapelan Z. (2007) Bayesian modelling of time aggregated water pipe bursts with a zero-inflated, non-homogeneous Poisson process, 22nd International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Barcelona, Spain, 2nd - 6th Jul 2007.
  • Economou T, Kapelan Z, Bailey T. (2007) An Aggregated Hierarchical Bayesian Model for the Prediction of Pipe Failures, Water Management Challenges in Global Change: Proceedings of the 9th Computing and Control for the Water Industry (CCWI2007) and the Sustainable Urban Water Management (SUWM), De Montfort University, Uk.
  • Bailey TC, Cordeiro R, Lourenço RW. (2007) Semiparametric modeling of the spatial distribution of occupational accident risk in the casual labor market, Piracicaba, southeast Brazil, Risk Anal, volume 27, no. 2, pages 421-431, DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00894.x. [PDF]
  • Krzanowski WJ, Bailey TC. (2007) Extraction of Spatial Features Using Factor Methods, Illustrated on Stream Sediment Data, Mathematical Geology, volume 39, no. 1, pages 69-85, DOI:10.1007/s11004-006-9067-3. [PDF]
  • Schetinin V, Fieldsend JE, Partridge D, Coats TJ, Krzanowski WJ, Everson RM, Bailey TC, Hernandez A. (2007) Confident interpretation of Bayesian decision tree ensembles for clinical applications, IEEE transactions on information technology in biomedicine : a publication of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society, volume 11, no. 3, pages 312-319, DOI:10.1109/titb.2006.880553.
  • Economou T, Bailey TC, Kapelan Z. (2007) Bayesian modelling of time aggregated water pipe bursts with a zero-inflated, non-homogeneous Poisson process, 22nd International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Barcelona, Spain.
  • Bailey TC. (2007) Statistical Methods in Spatial Epidemiology, 2nd edition by A. B. LAWSON, Biometrics, volume 63, no. 3, pages 968-969, DOI:10.1111/j.1541-0420.2007.00856_2.x. [PDF]
  • Schetinin V, Fieldsend JE, Partridge D, Krzanowski WJ, Everson RM, Bailey TC, Hernandez A. (2007) Estimating Classification Uncertainty of Bayesian Decision Tree Techniques on Financial Data, Perception-based Data Mining and Decision Making in Economics and Finance, Springer, 155-179.

2006

  • Bailey, T.C., Everson, R.M., Krzanowski, W.J.. (2006) Representing classifier confidence in the safety-critical domain - an illustration from mortality prediction in trauma cases, Neural Computing and Applications, volume 153, no. 1-2, pages 1-10.
  • Bailey TC, Hewson PJ. (2006) Modelling multivariate cancer rates with a latent structure mixture model, presented at XXIII International Biometric Conference, Montreal, Cananda, 16th - 21st Jul 2006.
  • Bailey T. (2006) Spatial Analysis: A Guide for Ecologists, Biometrics, volume 62, no. 3, pages 942-943, DOI:10.1111/j.1541-0420.2006.00588_3.x. [PDF]
  • Schetinin V, Fieldsend JE, Partridge D, Krzanowski WJ, Everson RM, Bailey TC, Hernandez A. (2006) A Bayesian Methodology for Estimating Uncertainty of Decisions in Safety-Critical Systems, 82-96.
  • Schetinin V, Fieldsend JE, Partridge D, Krzanowski WJ, Everson RM, Bailey TC, Hernandez A. (2006) Comparison of the bayesian and randomised decision tree ensembles within an uncertainty envelope technique, Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Algorithms, volume 5, no. 4, pages 397-416, DOI:10.1007/s10852-005-9019-9.
  • Krzanowski WJ, Bailey TC, Partridge D, Fieldsend JE, Everson RM, Schetinin V. (2006) Confidence in Classification: A Bayesian Approach, Journal of Classification, volume 23, no. 2, pages 199-220, DOI:10.1007/s00357-006-0013-3. [PDF]
  • Partridge D, Bailey TC, Everson RM, Fieldsend JE, Hernandez A, Krzanowski WJ, Schetinin V. (2006) Classification with confidence for critical systems, DEVELOPMENTS IN RISK-BASED APPROACHES TO SAFETY, pages 231-+, DOI:10.1007/1-84628-447-3_13. [PDF]
  • Partridge D, Schetinin V, Li D, Coats TJ, Fieldsend JE, Krzanowski WJ, Everson RM, Bailey TC. (2006) Interpretability of Bayesian Decision Trees Induced from Trauma Data, ICAISC 2006, Lecure Notes in Artificial Intelligence, volume 4029, pages 972-981.
  • Bailey TC, McKinley TJ. (2006) Spatial survival modelling and the 2001 UK foot-and-mouth disease epidemic, in Proceedings of 21st International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Galway, Ireland, 3rd - 7th Jul 2006.
  • Everson R, Fieldsend J, Bailey T, Krzanowski W, Partridge D, Schetinin V, Hernandez A. (2006) Optimising data-driven safety related systems, Developments in Risk-Based Approaches to Safety - Proceedings of the 14th Safety-Critical Systems Symposium, SSS 2006, pages 217-230, DOI:10.1007/1-84628-447-3_12.

2005

2004

2003

  • Fieldsend JE, Bailey TC, Everson RM, Krzanowski WJ, Partridge D, Schetinin V. (2003) Bayesian inductively learned modules for safety critical systems, 35th Symposium on the Interface: Computing Science and Statistics, Salt Lake City, Usa, 12th - 15th Mar 2003, Computing Science and Statisics, volume 35, pages 110-125. [PDF]

2002

  • Bailey TC. (2002) Debate on the paper by Gilberto Câmara & Antônio Miguel Vieira Monteiro, Cadernos de Saúde Pública, volume 17, no. 5, pages 1072-1073, DOI:10.1590/s0102-311x2001000500003.
  • Bailey TC. (2002) Statistical Methods in Spatial Epidemiology, Biometrics, volume 58, pages 471-471.
  • Bailey TC. (2002) Longitudinal modelling strategies: an illustration investigating the effect of vitamin A supplementation on diarrhoea, V Congresso Brasileiro de Epidemiologia, Curitiba, Brazil, 23rd - 27th Mar 2002.

2001

  • Badcock J, Bailey TC, Krzanowski WJ. (2001) Modelling of multivariate process control data, in New Trends in Statistical Modelling: Proceedings of 16th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Odense, Denmark.
  • Bailey TC. (2001) Spatial statistical methods in health, Cad Saude Publica, volume 17, no. 5, pages 1083-1098, DOI:10.1590/s0102-311x2001000500011. [PDF]

2000

1998

  • Bailey TC. (1998) Multivariate statistical analysis for geographers, JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, volume 38, no. 4, pages 682-686. [PDF]
  • Bailey TC, Sapatinas T, Powell KJ, Krzanowski WJ. (1998) Signal detection in underwater sound using wavelets, JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION, volume 93, no. 441, pages 73-83, DOI:10.2307/2669604. [PDF]

1997

  • Bailey TC, Sapatinas T, Powell K, Krzanowski WJ. (1997) Use of wavelets in the detection of underwater sound signals, in 28th Symposium on the Interface: Computing Science and Statistics, 28, Sydney, Australia.

1996

1995

  • Bailey TC, Gatrell AC. (1995) Interactive Spatial Data Analysis, Longman Scientific and Technical.
  • Powell KJ, Sapatinas T, Bailey TC, Krzanowski WJ. (1995) Application of wavelets to the pre-processing of underwater sounds, Statistics and Computing, volume 5, no. 4, pages 265-273, DOI:10.1007/BF00162499.
  • Bailey TC, Gatrell AC. (1995) Can GIS be made to sing and dance to an epidemiological tune?, in Proceedings of International Symposium on Computer Mapping in Epidemiology and Environmental Health, Tampa, Florida, Usa.
  • Gatrell AC, Collin JR, Downes R, Jones B, Bailey TC. (1995) The geographical epidemiology of ocular diseases: some principles and methods, Eye (Lond), volume 9 ( Pt 3), pages 358-364, DOI:10.1038/eye.1995.70. [PDF]

1994

  • Bailey TC. (1994) A review of statistical spatial analysis in geographical information systems, Spatial analysis and GIS, pages 13-44.
  • Bailey TC. (1994) A review of statistical spatial analysis in GIS, Spatial Analysis and GIS, Taylor & Francis, London, 13-45.
  • Powell K, Bailey TC, Sapatinas T, Krzanowski WJ. (1994) Wavelet applications with underwater sounds, 9th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Exeter, Uk.
  • Bailey TC, Munford AG. (1994) Modelling a large, sparse spatial interaction matrix using data relating to a subset of possible flows, European Journal of Operational Research, volume 79, no. 3, pages 489-500, DOI:10.1016/0377-2217(94)90061-2.

1993

1992

  • Bailey TC. (1992) Statistical Spatial Analysis & Geographical Information Systems - A review of the potential & progress in the state of the art, in Proceedings of the 3rd European Conference on Geographical Information Systems.

1991

  • Munford AG, Bailey TC. (1991) Operational Research Tutorial Papers 1989, Operational Research Society.
  • Bailey TC, Glaskin A, Knowles D. (1991) Affairs of the Heart - Developing referral policies for coronary care within a Health District, OR Insight, volume 4, no. 3, pages 15-20.
  • Bailey TC, Munford AG. (1991) A Case study employing GIS & Spatial Interaction Models in Location Planning, in Proceedings of the 2nd European Conference on Geographical Information Systems.
  • Bailey TC, Munford AG. (1991) Statistical Methods in Operational Research, Operational Research Tutorial Papers 1989, Operational Research Society, 57-73.

1990

1989

1988

  • BAILEY T. (1988) INSTAT - A STATISTICAL PACKAGE FOR MICROCOMPUTERS - PC VERSION, JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C-APPLIED STATISTICS, volume 37, no. 2, pages 273-277. [PDF]

1987

  • Bailey TC. (1987) Some Perspectives on the Management of Information Technology, Australian Journal of Management, volume 12, no. 2, pages 159-183, DOI:10.1177/031289628701200202.
  • BAILEY T. (1987) THEMES IN THE MANAGEMENT OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, JOURNAL OF THE OPERATIONAL RESEARCH SOCIETY, volume 38, no. 12, pages 1201-1201. [PDF]

1985

  • BAILEY TC. (1985) INFORMATION AND DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS IN THE NATIONAL-HEALTH SERVICE, JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES D-THE STATISTICIAN, volume 34, no. 1, pages 117-124. [PDF]
  • Wood R, Bailey TC. (1985) Some unanswered questions about goal effects: a recommended change in research methods, Australian Journal of Management, volume 10, no. 1, pages 61-73.
  • Bailey TC. (1985) SYSTAT - A statistical package for the professional, Today's Computers, volume 4, no. 2, pages 73-81.
  • Ashford JR, Bailey TC. (1985) A management decision support system for the National Health Service, STATISTICIAN, volume 34, no. 1, pages 107-116, DOI:10.2307/2987508.

1984

1983

  • Ashford J, Bailey T, Smith J. (1983) Any questions for the computer?, Health Soc Serv J, volume 93, no. 4874, pages 1412-1413. [PDF]

1982

  • Rosenhead J, Thunhurst C, Houlden BT, Sussams JE, Rees RA, Ashford JR, Butts MS, Bailey TC, Kolesar P, Proll LG. (1982) Comments on ‘A materialist analysis of operational research’, Journal of the Operational Research Society, volume 33, no. 8, pages 757-768, DOI:10.1057/jors.1982.165.
  • ASHFORD JR, BUTTS MS, BAILEY TC. (1982) INDEPENDENT RESEARCH INTO ISSUES OF PUBLIC-POLICY, JOURNAL OF THE OPERATIONAL RESEARCH SOCIETY, volume 33, no. 8, pages 763-765. [PDF]

1981

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