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Project dates: 2013-2017

We have developed new methods and software tools for forecast verification, and new statistical models to improve the skill and reliability of climate forecasts.

SPECS project website »


Project dates: 2016-2020

We develop new statistical methods to combine output from climate models with historical observations to improve projections of future climate change.

Project dates: 10/2010-09/2013

The RACEWIN project aims at assessing a potential evolution in the distribution of tracks followed by European windstorm events under a changed climate. A regional analysis is targeted. A better understanding of the clustering effect (several events following one another along a similar path), along with studying the response of the phenomena to a climate change signal is also within the scope of the project. This project addresses the 2009 Call 2: Impact of Climate Change on European Windstorm tracks of the Axa Research Fund.

RACEWIN project page »

Project dates: 09/2010 - 08/2012

This collaborative interdisciplinary project will deliver and apply new mathematical complexity methods for quantifying the predictability of extreme events in complex dynamical systems. Our new tools will specifically help three European Weather Services improve their capability to forecast extreme weather events (e.g. catastrophic windstorms) - a rapidly emerging real world challenge expected due to anthropogenic climate change.

PREDEX project webpages »

Project dates: 01/2011 - 12/2013

TEMPEST is a 3-year research project that is part of the NERC Storm Risk Mitigation directed programme and involves the Universities of Reading, Oxford and Exeter. TEMPEST will provide an improved understanding of how climate change and natural variability will affect the generation and evolution of extra-tropical cyclones.

TEMPEST project pages »

Our objectives are to improve the handling of uncertainty in relation to natural hazards, by both scientists and stakeholders and to improve communication between the science and stakeholder communities.

CREDIBLE project webpages »

Project dates: 01/2010 - 12/2012

EQUIP is a three-year consortium project that brings together the UK climate modelling, statistical modelling, and impacts communities to work closely together for the first time on developing risk-based prediction for decision making in the face of climate variability and change.

Project dates: 08/2010 - 01/2014

CONVEX is investigating the deficiencies of numerical weather and climate models in simulating extreme rainfall events. Focussing on the UK, we shall use observational evidence, process understanding and new modelling capability to consider key uncertainties (process mechanisms, model parameterisations and resolution) and to quantify model deficiencies in the simulation of extreme rainfall processes on different space and time scales. This will provide understanding essential for improved model predictions of extreme rainfall change under global warming.

Project webpages »

Project dates: 05/2007 - present

NCAS is one of the Natural Environment Research Council's established collaborative centres, funded to provide the UK with national capability in atmospheric science research and technology. 

NCAS webpages »