Project dates: 2013-2017
We have developed new methods and software tools for forecast verification, and new statistical models to improve the skill and reliability of climate forecasts.
Project dates: 2016-2020
We develop new statistical methods to combine output from climate models with historical observations to improve projections of future climate change.
Project dates: 10/2010-09/2013
The RACEWIN project aims at assessing a potential evolution in the distribution of tracks followed by European windstorm events under a changed climate. A regional analysis is targeted. A better understanding of the clustering effect (several events following one another along a similar path), along with studying the response of the phenomena to a climate change signal is also within the scope of the project. This project addresses the 2009 Call 2: Impact of Climate Change on European Windstorm tracks of the Axa Research Fund.
Project dates: 09/2010 - 08/2012
This collaborative interdisciplinary project will deliver and apply new mathematical complexity methods for quantifying the predictability of extreme events in complex dynamical systems. Our new tools will specifically help three European Weather Services improve their capability to forecast extreme weather events (e.g. catastrophic windstorms) - a rapidly emerging real world challenge expected due to anthropogenic climate change.
Project dates: 01/2011 - 12/2013
TEMPEST is a 3-year research project that is part of the NERC Storm Risk Mitigation directed programme and involves the Universities of Reading, Oxford and Exeter. TEMPEST will provide an improved understanding of how climate change and natural variability will affect the generation and evolution of extra-tropical cyclones.
Our objectives are to improve the handling of uncertainty in relation to natural hazards, by both scientists and stakeholders and to improve communication between the science and stakeholder communities.
Project dates: 01/2010 - 12/2012
EQUIP is a three-year consortium project that brings together the UK climate modelling, statistical modelling, and impacts communities to work closely together for the first time on developing risk-based prediction for decision making in the face of climate variability and change.
Project dates: 08/2010 - 01/2014
CONVEX is investigating the deficiencies of numerical weather and climate models in simulating extreme rainfall events. Focussing on the UK, we shall use observational evidence, process understanding and new modelling capability to consider key uncertainties (process mechanisms, model parameterisations and resolution) and to quantify model deficiencies in the simulation of extreme rainfall processes on different space and time scales. This will provide understanding essential for improved model predictions of extreme rainfall change under global warming.