WASSERMed (2010 - 2013)

Funding body: European Commission Seventh Framework Program (EC FP7)

WASSERMed (Water Availability and Security in Southern EuRope and the Mediterranean www.wassermed.eu) is a European Commission Seventh Framework Program (EC FP7) funded interdisciplinary collaborative project that draws together experts from diverse backgrounds including water systems, agriculture, climate change analysis and social studies (see poster). It is one of three “sister projects” under the same theme of 'Climate induced changes in water resources', funded at the same time, focusing on water related threats from different point of views in the Mediterranean area (technical, meteorological, social). The other two projects are CLIMB (http://www.climb-fp7.eu/home/home.php) and CLICO (http://www.clico.org/).

The main aims of WASSERMed are:

  • to analyse current and future climate-induced changes to the hydrological budgets and extremes in southern Europe and the Mediterranean
  • to explore the implications of these changes under the framework of environmental, social and economic threats to security
  • to develop holistic/integrated modelling approaches to quantify the impact of climate change
  • to assess changes to mean flows and the extremes
  • to develop indicators for the examination and quantification of future water related security issues
  • to develop meaningful and realistic mitigation/policy options with project partners

Partners

Study areas

‌The results from WASSERMed aim to be applicable to the entire Mediterranean basin. Five case study areas have been chosen to reflect the diverse range of environments and causes of water-related security threats in the region, while research partners and stakeholders from all these regions participate in the project. The case study areas are:‌

 
  • Syros Island, Greece
  • Sardinia
  • Tunisia
  • Jordan River, Jordan
  • the Nile River, Egypt‌
 ‌

Exeter's involvement

System Dynamics Modelling

‌The Centre for Water Systems is the leader of the work package which involves developing and implementing water balance models, for each case study region, now and for the year 2050. Water demand will be estimated for 2050, with the aim being to assess the water-related security threats being posed to each case study area and to the wider Mediterranean basin as a result of potential  climate change scenarios and water shortages. Mitigating policy options will be defined and developed with local stakeholders in terms of absolute- and cost-effectiveness. System dynamics modelling (Fig. 1) is the tool being used in determining the water balance in each case study area, and to forecast future water use and demand. The work builds on previous experience of CWS with SDM for complex water systems at the EC FP6 project AQUASTRESS (2005-2009)

WASSERMed System Dynamics Modelling

Other areas of CWS involvement

  • Macroeconomic effects, trade and virtual water: Global assessment of water balance cases, where an  assessment on the impact of the effects on national economies is being made, and changes in production structure, demand patterns and productivity will be modelled.
  • Sensitive strategic sectors: Assessment of climate change effects on tourism and adaptation measures to climate change for the agricultural sectors in the case study areas.
  • Dissemination and awareness, including stakeholder involvement for participatory processes through project workshops at the case studies sites, training seminars and workshops on System  Dynamics Modelling, so that all partners have an understanding of the processes and methods involved in water balance quantification .

For more information see WASSERMED poster

Outcomes

Peer-reviewed journal articles

Sušnik J., Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia L.S., Savić D.A., Kapelan Z., 2013. Integrated modelling of the water-agricultural system in the Rosetta region, Nile delta, Egypt, using system dynamics. Accepted in Journal of Water and Climate Change.

Sušnik J., Molina J-L., Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia L.S., Savić D.A., Kapelan Z., 2013. Comparative analysis of System Dynamics and Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks modelling for water systems management. Water Resources Management. 27(3): 819-841. DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0217-8.

Sušnik J., Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia L.S., Savić D.A., Kapelan Z., 2012, Integrated System Dynamics Modelling for water scarcity assessment: Case study of the Kairouan region. Science of the Total Environment. 440: 290-306. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.050.085.

EU project reports

Sušnik J., Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia L.S., Savić D.A., Kapelan Z., 2012, Synthesis report on modelling and indicators for policy recommendations. WASSERMed Report 5.3.1. 89pp.

Sušnik J., Kampragrou E., Manoli E., Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia L.S., 2012, Preliminary report on water balance modelling for all case studies. WASSERMed Milestone 5.4. 46 pp.

Sušnik J., Manoli E., Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia L.S., Savić D.A., Kapelan Z., 2012, Stakeholder consultation meetings on water balance modelling and evaluation: short report. WASSERMed Milestone 5.6. 16 pp.

Sušnik J., Manoli E., Kampragrou E., Mereu S., Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia L. S., Savić D.A., Kapelan Z., 2012, Report on water balancing for all case studies. WASSERMed Report 5.2.3. 72 pp.

Sušnik J., Manoli E., Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia L. S., Kampragrou E., Assimakopoulos D., Todorovic M., Mereu S., Roushdi M., El-Ganzouri A., Shatanawi M.S., Lili-Chabaane Z., Chakroun H., Oueslati I., Leduc C., Ogilvie A., Al-Naber G., Saba M., 2011, Water demand scenarios for the Case Studies. WASSERMed Report 5.1.2. 78 pp.

Sušnik J., Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia L.S., Savić D.A., Kapelan Z., 2012, Preliminary analysis of scenarios and options for all case studies. WASSERMed Milestone 5.5. 33 pp.

Sušnik J., Manoli E., Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia L. S., 2011, Definition, details and specifications of a database for modelling purposes. WASSERMed Report 5.1.1. 27 pp.

Sušnik J., Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia L. S., Manoli E., 2011, Report on modelling tools and techniques to be applied to each case study for water balancing. WASSERMed Report 5.2.2. 50 pp.

Sušnik J., 2010, Literature review and comparative analysis of the existing methodologies for water balance. WASSERMed Report 5.2.1. 34 pp.

Sušnik J., Manoli E., 2010, Selection of indicators for case studies. WASSERMed Milestone 5.1. 51 pp.

Conference proceedings

Sušnik J., Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia L. S., Savić D. A. and Kapelan Z., 2012, A System Dynamics Model assessing climate change impacts to the Rosetta region, Nile delta, Egypt. Proceedings of  the 10th International conference on Hydroinformatics, Hamburg, Germany, 13-18 July, 2012.

Sušnik J., Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia L. S., Savić D. A. and Kapelan Z., 2011, Evaluating water-related security threats for complex water systems using System Dynamics Modelling, Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Computing and Control in the Water Industry, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK, 5-7 September 2011, pp. 71-76.

Sušnik J., Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia L. S., Savić D. A. and Kapelan Z., 2011, System Dynamics Modelling applied for the integrated simulation of complex water systems, Proceedings of the 8th IWA Symposium on Systems Analysis and Integrated Assessment, San Sebastian, Spain, 20-22 June 2011, pp. 535-542.

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