Helping the building sector adapt to the challenges of climate change.
The Use of Probabilistic Climate Change Data to Future-proof Design Decisions in the Building Sector
PROMETHEUS was a multi-disciplinary EPSRC funded project. The main aims of the project were to:
- Create a methodology for the creation of probabilisitic future reference years using the output of UKCP09.
- Using physics based models identify the problems new buildings face as a result of climate change.
- Help the building sector adapt to the challenges of climate change.
We are a member of the ARCC (Adaptation & Resilience in a Changing Climate) co-ordinated research network.
The outputs will be used for projects such as the Montgomery Primary School Project, the first zero-carbon climate change ready school in the UK and the Technology Strategy Board's 'Design for Future Climate' projects.
Whether you believe that it is man-made or a natural process there is overwhelming evidence that the climate is changing.
The work of John Tyndall showed that CO2 is almost opague to thermal radiation. Increasing the concentration of this green house gas and others in the atmosphere can only lead to warming of the climate system.
The IPCC's fourth assessment report shows significant warming over land for diferent socio-economic projections of CO2 emissions. The widget on the left shows the trend and current concentration of atmospheric CO2.
For the UK, the latest climate projections based upon these emissions scenarios, UKCP09 incorporates climate models from the Met Office and others. The projections are probabilistic in nature instead of deterministic so as to allow users to assess the level of risk. Using this probabilistic data we have created a set of probabilistic future weather files for many locations around the UK. Each of the weather files available on this site are equally likely and the different percentiles represents a different position within the range of the uncertainty of the climate models.
We are proud to be partnered with the following organisations on the PROMETHEUS project: