Monday 05 Feb 2018Dynamics Seminar: SIQ: control of infectious diseases via isolation

Tiago Pereira - University of Sao Paulo

H103 14:30-15:30

Infectious diseases are among the most prominent threats to mankind. When an outbreak is unforeseen, or no vaccine is available, the only viable means to containment is the isolation of infected individuals. We propose called SIQ; it is an extension of the SIS model with some additional features on isolation focusing on issues related to its implementation such as identification of infected hosts, isolation probability, and the length of isolation. The continuum limit of our SIQ network model is a system of Delay Differential Equations that can be analyzed using the geometric theory of semi-flows. Our two main results are (1) an explicit formula for critical response capability, and (2) prediction of endemic state should this response be inadequate.

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