Thursday 05 Jun 2014: CliMathNet seminar: Statistical emulation as a model-coupling tool for integrated assessments of climate change.
Neil Edwards - Open University
Harrison 209 16:00-17:00
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) couple together the dynamics of a set of diverse and complex systems, often including climate and the global economy, to assess the impacts of environmental change. Computational and methodical challenges have generally restricted such models to including only one component at high complexity with much simplified representations of the other elements of the chain. We show how statistical emulation has been used to reduce the dimension of model components for inclusion in IAMs while retaining a much higher degree of spatio-temporal complexity in their response than is normally possible. Ultimately, this should allow much richer analyses of system feedbacks and the cascading of uncertainty through the coupled system.
(Will be given by video link)