Thursday 27 Mar 2014Towards a decision-theoretic warning system for severe weather

David Stephenson and Theo Economou -

Harrison 101 15:00-16:00

This talk will briefly introduce decision theory and describe how it can be used to make optimal hazard warnings. The approach will be illustrated using winter 2013 and 2014 UK wind speed ensemble forecasts made using the Met Office MOGREPS system. An explicit loss function is defined which allows proper quantification of risk (mean loss). The approach will be compared to the existing severe weather warning system used by the Met Office.

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