Overview

My research interests and activities generally lie in the application of mathematical and statistical methods, in particular dynamical systems approaches, to problems in weather and climate science.

I am a member of the Exeter Climate Systems centre and the Centre for Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics.

Research interests

• data-driven stochastic subgrid-scale modelling

• low-order models of atmospheric low-frequency variability

• statistics, prediction and predictability of extreme weather events

• analysis and modelling of palaeoclimatic records using simple dynamical systems

• prediction of critical transitions from time series

• statistical post-processing of weather forecast ensembles

Academic qualifications

PhD in Theoretical Physics, University of Rostock, Germany
Diplom (equiv. to MSc) in Physics, University of Muenster, Germany

Vordiplom (equiv. to BSc) in Physics, University of Muenster, Germany

Vordiplom (equiv. to BSc) in Mathematics, University of Muenster, Germany

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Publications

_{Copyright Notice: Any articles made available for download are for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and the copyright holder.}

| 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2004 | 2003 | 2001 | 1999 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 |

2023

• Allen S, Ferro CAT, Kwasniok F. (2023) Erratum to ‘A conditional decomposition of proper scores: quantifying the sources of information in a forecast’, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 149, no. 757, pages 3765-3765, DOI:10.1002/qj.4565.
• Wessel J, Ferro C, Kwasniok F. (2023) Lead time continuous statistical post-processing of ensemble weather forecasts, DOI:10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14425. [PDF]

2022

• Kwasniok F. (2022) Linear Inverse Modeling of Large-Scale Atmospheric Flow Using Optimal Mode Decomposition, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, volume 79, no. 9, pages 2181-2204, DOI:10.1175/jas-d-21-0193.1.

2021

• Kwasniok F. (2021) Semiparametric maximum likelihood probability density estimation, PLoS One, volume 16, no. 11, DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0259111. [PDF]
• Allen S, Evans GR, Buchanan P, Kwasniok F. (2021) Incorporating the North Atlantic Oscillation into the post‐processing of MOGREPS‐G wind speed forecasts, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 147, no. 735, pages 1403-1418, DOI:10.1002/qj.3983. [PDF]

2020

• Allen S, Ferro C, Kwasniok F. (2020) Recalibrating wind speed forecasts using regime-dependent Ensemble Model Output Statistics, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 146, DOI:10.1002/qj.3806. [PDF]

2019

• Kwasniok F, Beaumont R, Thuburn J. (2019) Erratum to Vortex dynamics of stratospheric sudden warmings: A reanalysis data study using PV contour integral diagnostics (Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, (2019), 145, 720, (1013-1033), 10.1002/qj.3474), Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 145, no. 724, DOI:10.1002/qj.3629.
• Allen S, Ferro CAT, Kwasniok F. (2019) Regime‐dependent statistical post‐processing of ensemble forecasts, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 145, no. 725, pages 3535-3552, DOI:10.1002/qj.3638. [PDF]
• Kwasniok F. (2019) Fluctuations of finite-time Lyapunov exponents in an intermediate-complexity atmospheric model: a multivariate and large-deviation perspective, NONLINEAR PROCESSES IN GEOPHYSICS, volume 26, no. 3, pages 195-209, DOI:10.5194/npg-26-195-2019. [PDF]
• Kwasniok F, Beaumont R, Thuburn J. (2019) Vortex dynamics of stratospheric sudden warmings: A reanalysis data study using PV contour integral diagnostics, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 145, no. 720, pages 1013-1033, DOI:10.1002/qj.3474.

2018

• Kwasniok F. (2018) Fluctuations of finite-time Lyapunov exponents in an intermediate-complexity atmospheric model: a multivariate and large-deviation perspective, pages 1-18, DOI:10.5194/npg-2018-25.
• Kwasniok F. (2018) Detecting, anticipating, and predicting critical transitions in spatially extended systems, Chaos, volume 28, no. 3, DOI:10.1063/1.5022189. [PDF]

2017

• Beaumont R, Kwasniok F, Thuburn J. (2017) Vortex erosion in a shallow water model of the polar vortex, Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, volume 78, pages 137-151, DOI:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2017.04.003. [PDF]

2015

• Thomas ZA, Kwasniok F, Boulton CA, Cox PM, Jones RT, Lenton TM, Turney CSM. (2015) Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions, DOI:10.5194/cpd-11-1313-2015. [PDF]
• Kwasniok F. (2015) Forecasting critical transitions using data-driven nonstationary dynamical modeling, Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys, volume 92, no. 6, DOI:10.1103/PhysRevE.92.062928. [PDF]
• Thomas ZA, Kwasniok F, Boulton CA, Cox PM, Jones RT, Lenton TM, Turney CSM. (2015) Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions, Climate of the Past, volume 11, no. 12, pages 1621-1633, DOI:10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015.

2014

• Kwasniok F. (2014) Enhanced regime predictability in atmospheric low-order models due to stochastic forcing, Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci, volume 372, no. 2018, DOI:10.1098/rsta.2013.0286. [PDF]
• Williams RM, Ferro CAT, Kwasniok F. (2014) A comparison of ensemble post-processing methods for extreme events, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 140, no. 680, pages 1112-1120, DOI:10.1002/qj.2198.

2013

• Kwasniok F. (2013) Predicting critical transitions in dynamical systems from time series using nonstationary probability density modeling, Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, volume 88, no. 5, DOI:10.1103/PhysRevE.88.052917.
• Williams RM, Ferro CAT, Kwasniok F. (2013) A comparison of ensemble post-processing methods for extreme events, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, DOI:10.1002/qj.2198. [PDF]

2012

• Kwasniok F, Lohmann G. (2012) A stochastic nonlinear oscillator model for glacial millennial-scale climate transitions derived from ice-core data, NONLINEAR PROCESSES IN GEOPHYSICS, volume 19, no. 6, pages 595-603, DOI:10.5194/npg-19-595-2012. [PDF]
• Kwasniok F. (2012) Estimation of noise parameters in dynamical system identification with Kalman filters, Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, volume 86, no. 3, DOI:10.1103/PhysRevE.86.036214.
• Kwasniok F. (2012) Estimation of noise parameters in dynamical system identification with Kalman filters, Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys, volume 86, no. 3 Pt 2, DOI:10.1103/PhysRevE.86.036214. [PDF]
• Kwasniok F. (2012) Data-based stochastic subgrid-scale parametrisation: an approach using cluster-weighted modelling, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, volume 370, pages 1061-1086.
• Kwasniok F, Lohmann G. (2012) A nonlinear stochastic oscillator model for glacial millennial-scale climate transitions derived from ice-core data, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, volume 19, pages 595-603.

2011

• Livina VN, Kwasniok F, Lohmann G, Kantelhardt JW, Lenton TM. (2011) Changing climate states and stability: from Pliocene to present, Climate Dynamics, volume 37, pages 2437-2453.

2010

• Livina V, Kwasniok F, Lenton T. (2010) Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr, Climate of the Past, volume 6, pages 77-82.

2009

• Livina VN, Kwasniok F, Lenton TM. (2009) Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr, volume 5, no. 5, pages 2223-2237, DOI:10.5194/cpd-5-2223-2009.
• Livina V, Kwasniok F, Sapronov Y, Lenton T. (2009) Bifurcation analysis of geophysical time series, IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science, volume 6, no. 6, DOI:10.1088/1755-1307/6/6/062021.
• Livina VN, Kwasniok F, Lenton TM. (2009) Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr, Climate of the Past Discussions, volume 5, no. 5, pages 2223-2237.
• Kwasniok F, Lohmann G. (2009) Deriving dynamical models from paleoclimatic records: application to glacial millennial-scale climate variability, Physical Review E, volume 80, article no. 066104, DOI:10.1103/PhysRevE.80.066104.

2008

• Kwasniok F. (2008) Regime prediction and predictability in nonlinear dynamical systems, European Physical Journal Special Topics, volume 165, pages 35-44, DOI:10.1140/epjst/e2008-00847-y.

2007

• Kwasniok F. (2007) Reduced atmospheric models using dynamically motivated basis functions, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, volume 64, no. 10, pages 3452-3474, DOI:10.1175/JAS4022.1.

2006

• Harle M, Kwasniok F, Feudel U. (2006) Growth of finite errors in ensemble prediction, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, volume 13, no. 2, pages 167-176, DOI:10.5194/npg-13-167-2006.

2004

• Kwasniok F. (2004) Empirical low-order models of barotropic flow, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, volume 61, no. 2, pages 235-245, DOI:10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<0235:ELMOBF>2.0.CO;2.
• Kwasniok F, Smith LA. (2004) Real-time construction of optimized predictors from data streams, Physical Review Letters, volume 92, no. 16, DOI:10.1103/PhysRevLett.92.164101.

2003

• Kwasniok F, Schmitz G. (2003) Radiating instabilities of internal inertio-gravity waves, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, volume 60, no. 10, pages 1257-1269.

2001

• Kwasniok F. (2001) Low-dimensional models of the Ginzburg Landau equation, SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, volume 61, no. 6, pages 2063-2079, DOI:10.1137/S0036139900368212.

1999

• Kwasniok F, Schmitz G. (1999) Parametrisation of subgrid scale motion and reduced models based on approximate inertial manifolds, 12TH CONFERENCE ON ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC FLUID DYNAMICS, pages 302-302. [PDF]

1997

• Kwasniok F. (1997) Optimal Galerkin approximations of partial differential equations using principal interaction patterns, Physical Review E - Statistical Physics, Plasmas, Fluids, and Related Interdisciplinary Topics, volume 55, no. 5, pages 5365-5375, DOI:10.1103/PhysRevE.55.5365.
• Kwasniok F. (1997) Optimal Galerkin approximations of partial differential equations using principal interaction patterns, PHYSICAL REVIEW E, volume 55, no. 5, pages 5365-5375, DOI:10.1103/PhysRevE.55.5365. [PDF]
• Kwasniok F. (1997) Low-dimensional models of complex systems using principal interaction patterns, Nonlinear Analysis, Theory, Methods and Applications, volume 30, no. 1, pages 489-494, DOI:10.1016/S0362-546X(97)00265-4.

1996

• Kwasniok F. (1996) The reduction of complex dynamical systems using principal interaction patterns, Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, volume 92, no. 1-2, pages 28-60, DOI:10.1016/0167-2789(95)00280-4.

1995

• Kwasniok F. (1995) Surface dynamics of hexagonal close-packed metals, Surface Science, volume 329, no. 1-2, pages 90-100, DOI:10.1016/0039-6028(95)00057-7.

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