Dr Christopher Ferro
Senior Lecturer in Statistics
Telephone: 01392 724050
Extension: (Streatham) 4050
Analysing the performance of predictions such as weather forecasts or medical diagnoses helps forecasters to improve their predictions and helps recipients to decide how to respond to predictions. My research aims at providing detailed insights into predictive performance. The statistical tools that I develop are applicable in many fields but my main interests are in weather forecasting and climate prediction. I am particularly interested in developing ways to answer the following questions.
- How good are predictions of extreme events?
- How good are predictions of multi-dimensional events?
- How does performance vary with spatial and temporal scales?
- How does performance vary with the conditions under which the forecast is made?
- How can we assess performance when the outcome is uncertain?
- How can we efficiently design and improve prediction systems?
My research lies at the interface between probability theory, statistical inference and data analysis. If you are interested in doing a PhD in this area then please contact me.
I received my PhD in Statistics from Lancaster University and worked for four years in the Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading before joining Exeter in 2007. I held a research fellowship with the National Centre for Atmospheric Science from 2004 to 2008. I am a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society and an Associate Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society. I received the LF Richardson Prize from the Royal Meteorological Society in 2015 for my work on analysing ensemble forecasts.