Overview

Here is my personal webpage.

I moved to Exeter to work as a Willis Research Fellow in October 2012. My current research is based on statistical methods for natural hazard events, in particular European wind-storms. Much of my current work is on ``recalibration'' methods, which are methods for predicting reality, with uncertainty reliably quantified, using both measurements and climate model output. These methods primarily target extreme values of meteorological phenomena.

Previously I was a Research Associate at University of Sheffield as part of the Managing Uncertainty in Complex Models project, where I worked on statistical calibration methods for computer simulators. My PhD research (University of Sheffield, 2011) was in the field of statistics of extreme values, and focussed on space-time models for extremes in environmental processes.

Do get in touch if you're interested in a PhD on any of the following topics:

• Statistical modelling of extreme values and events
• Spatial statistics
• Natural hazards
• Parametric insurance

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Publications

_{Copyright Notice: Any articles made available for download are for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and the copyright holder.}

| 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2014 |

2023

• Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, Youngman BD, Dale M, Short C. (2023) New extreme rainfall projections for improved climate resilience of urban drainage systems, Climate Services, volume 30, DOI:10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100375.

2022

• Chan S, Kendon E, Fowler HJ, Youngman BD, Dale M, Short C. (2022) New Extreme Rainfall Projections for Improved Climate Resilience of Urban Drainage Systems, DOI:10.2139/ssrn.4303999.
• Lockwood JF, Stringer N, Thornton HE, Scaife AA, Bett PE, Collier T, Comer R, Dunstone N, Gordon M, Hermanson L. (2022) Predictability of European winter 2020/2021: Influence of a mid-winter sudden stratospheric warming, ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, volume 23, no. 12, article no. ARTN e1126, DOI:10.1002/asl.1126. [PDF]
• Youngman BD. (2022) evgam: An R Package for Generalized Additive Extreme Value Models, Journal of Statistical Software, volume 103, no. 3, DOI:10.18637/jss.v103.i03.

2021

• Challen R, Dyson L, Overton CE, Guzman-Rincon LM, Hill EM, Stage HB, Brooks-Pollock E, Pellis L, Scarabel F, Pascall DJ. (2021) Early epidemiological signatures of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants: establishment of B.1.617.2 in England, DOI:10.1101/2021.06.05.21258365.

2020

• Youngman BD. (2020) evgam: An R package for Generalized Additive Extreme Value Models. [PDF]
• Youngman BD. (2020) Flexible models for nonstationary dependence: Methodology and examples. [PDF]

2019

• Youngman BD. (2019) Generalized Additive Models for Exceedances of High Thresholds With an Application to Return Level Estimation for U.S. Wind Gusts, Journal of the American Statistical Association, volume 114, no. 528, pages 1865-1879, DOI:10.1080/01621459.2018.1529596.

2018

• Khare S, Chalabi Z, Youngman B. (2018) Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Historical Extreme Winter Temperatures in England and Scotland — A Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis, Journal of Extreme Events, volume 05, no. 01, pages 1750005-1750005, DOI:10.1142/s2345737617500051. [PDF]
• Figueiredo R, Martina MLV, Stephenson DB, Youngman BD. (2018) A Probabilistic Paradigm for the Parametric Insurance of Natural Hazards, Risk Anal, volume 38, no. 11, pages 2400-2414, DOI:10.1111/risa.13122. [PDF]

2017

• Youngman BD, Economou T. (2017) Generalised additive point process models for natural hazard occurrence, Environmetrics, DOI:10.1002/env.2444.
• Stephenson DB, Hunter A, Youngman BD, Cook I. (2017) Towards a more Dynamical Paradigm for Natural Catastrophe Risk Modelling, Risk Modelling for Hazards and Disasters, Elsevier. [PDF]
• Oakley JE, Youngman BD. (2017) Calibration of Stochastic Computer Simulators Using Likelihood Emulation, Technometrics, volume 59, no. 1, pages 80-92, DOI:10.1080/00401706.2015.1125391.

2016

• Youngman BD, Stephenson DB. (2016) Inference for spatial processes using imperfect data from measurements and numerical simulations. [PDF]
• Youngman BD, Stephenson DB. (2016) A geostatistical extreme-value framework for fast simulation of natural hazard events, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, volume 472, no. 2189, DOI:10.1098/rspa.2015.0855.

2014

• Roberts JF, Champion AJ, Dawkins LC, Hodges KI, Shaffrey LC, Stephenson DB, Stringer MA, Thornton HE, Youngman BD. (2014) The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979 to 2012, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, volume 14, no. 9, pages 2487-2501, DOI:10.5194/nhess-14-2487-2014.

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