Prof Adam Scaife
Honorary Visiting Professor
Adam carries out research on climate variability in collaboration with researchers at the University. He leads monthly, seasonal and decadal prediction at the Met Office Hadley Centre which involves the production of ensembles of climate predictions for early warning and adaptation to climate variability and change. Adam has published around 100 peer reviewed articles on mechanisms of climate variability and their simulation in physically based climate models and his research group recently made important breakthroughs in seasonal forecasting for winter.
Adam joined Exeter as Honorary Professor in 2014. He previously became head of the Met Office’s Monthly to Decadal Prediction Group in 2008 after spending five years leading a smaller team of scientists investigating climate variability. Adam has over 20 years experience in climate modelling. His recent studies help to clarify what caused changes in European climate from cold blocked winters in the 1960s to the mild wet winters of the 1990s, as well as year-to-year effects from El Niño, stratosphere-troposphere interaction and other sources of predictability. Adam simulated the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation using parameterised gravity waves for the first time in a climate model and his work has reduced some of the major errors in climate model simulations of the atmosphere - for example in reducing the errors in atmospheric 'blocking'. He also demonstrated with colleagues that the Brewer-Dobson circulation and the associated mass transfer across the tropopause is expected to increase under climate change. Adam was recently awarded the Lloyd's of London Science of Risk Research Prize in the Climate Change category and the L.G. Groves Memorial Prize for Meteorology. Adam co-chair’s the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction.