This collaborative interdisciplinary project will deliver new mathematical techniques for quantifying the predictability of extreme events in complex systems. The real-world application is the forecasting of high-impact severe weather events.

We will address these specific questions:

  1. What are the deterministic time limits of predictability for extreme weather events?
  2. How can we use emergent dynamical patterns to enhance predictability of extreme weather events?

This project will develop new mathematical tools which will help answer these questions. The new tools are based on recent advances in the mathematical theory of extreme events for dynamical systems [11; 12; 14; 24] and on large-scale emergent atmospheric patterns which modulate the behaviour of windstorms [26].